states will worry that the United States would be deterred from coming to their defense in future regional crises by Iran's nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are likely to see nuclear weapons as a quick fix for all of their security woes. Although they have bee...
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numbers of Israelis, and ultimately the government, had ensured a truly independent probe would now go ahead. But other ways in which the war had gone wrong were already glaringly apparent. Some were operational. It is true we ended up overcoming Palestinian and Syrian resistanc...
/ BARAK / 132 its terror attack on a Pan American airliner in the late 1980s. Or, as in South Africa, that a change in nuclear policy might come from a change in régime in Tehran. Yet realistically, we couldn’t count on either. And there was no doubt in our minds that a nuclear...
e Uneven tariff rates and the banning of some US goods e Intellectual property theft e Forced technology transfer e Strategic US technology acquisitions e Outright cyber theft e Foreign ownership restrictions Recent headlines that the trade war may be escalating to a cold wa...
The outlook for macro policy and for the geopolitical environment remains uncertain Our fifth annual cycle of interviews took place between January and March 2017. In speaking with leading sovereign investors and central banks (with assets in excess of US$12 trillion) we ide...
From: Martin G. Weinberg fo Sent: 3/18/2016 4:30:13 PM To: jeffrey E. — : Kathy Ruemmler Po Darren Indyke Subject: ATTORNEY-CLIENT PRIVILEGE From: jeffrey E. Sent: Friday, March 18, 2016 11:41 AM To: Martin Weinberg ; Kathy Ruemmler ; Darren Indyke Subject: Fwd: Patterson won...
the Middle East's Islamists, and specifically the Muslim brotherhood, whom the Qataris view as the region's rising power. "The Qatari strategy is that the situation has changed, and we need to fend for ourselves and ensure that the regional anarchy is not going to impact us," say...
this is a call to greater international policy activism, rather than retrenchment in response to the rise of Trump. In other words, the conclusion is that the great trends of history, or to use an old Soviet term, the ‘correlation of forces’, are moving China’s way. TOWARDS A SH...
40 meant that Turkey, controlling the Bosporus, had to be kept in the American bloc. Syria and Iraq shifted policies in the late 1950s and by the mid-1960s had been armed by the Soviets. This made Turkey's position precarious: If the Soviets pressed from the north while Syria an...
Emerging market bonds Preference: neutral EMBI Global/CEMBI spread (24 Oct): 281bps / 334bps (last month: 292bps /363bps) UBS View EMBI Global/CEMBI spread target (6-month): 275bps/290bps ¢ Current spread levels of EM sovereign bonds are roughly in line with fundamentals. We th...
US equities S&P 500 (24 Oct): 1,409 (last publication: 1,433) UBS View S&P 500 (6-month target): 1,460 ¢ We keep our preference for US equities relative to other developed equity markets. Earnings continued to hold up better than in other regions during the recent economic slow...
Source Entry: H\Macintosh HD\root\Users\jee\Library\Messages\Archive\2017-02-23\III on 2017-02-24 at 09.54.58.ichat Service: iMessage Start Time: 02/19/17 12:59:45 PM (509230785) End Time: 02/23/17 08:45:23 PM (509604323) Last Message ID: 1557 Chat Room: Participants: jee, Presen...
High yield corporate bonds Preference: overweight Spread USD HY (24 Oct): 540bps (last month: 573bps) UBS View USD HY spread target (6-month): 475bps ¢ We reiterate our spread target of 475bps based on still robust corporate fundamentals, a favorable technical backdrop and the...
I’m writing about the Iran deal. So far have only sent a form paragraph in response to requests. Below. Noam On Iran, as usual, I’m a gloomy contrarian. I’m glad the treaty was signed, and it’s kind of fun to watch the Republican lunatics shrieking hysterically as they try to k...
books as they were mystersiously called was being kept soley by eileen, with little or no input ,correction or advice from tom. herarely if ever asked questions. expenses ie airplane was done in house apollo. (1031 exchange blown etc) at this time as I recall you got quite annoye...