Exhibit 28: Total Foreign Currency Holdings of China’s Official Sector If the recent pace of decline continues, China's reserves could soon fall below the IMF's adequacy threshold. US$ billions 5,000 Mumm P30C FX reserves Gums Other official FX holdings == Scenario 1 (avg. pac...
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Exhibit 87: High Yield Par-Weighted Interest Coverage Ratio Interest coverage today stands near all-time highs, unlike the pre-crisis period. 4 3 2 1 0 SH ae woe Se ees 8888 SEsesese8 8 RR ERR SRE ES Data through 03 2016. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Barclays. Cove...
to openly discussing his intention to form a “majoritarian government” that would exclude the most important Sunni representatives. In mid- December he participated in creating a Shiite grand alliance as the launching pad for that government. The principal Sunni political leaders...
Hannah Dreier of ProPublica won a Hillman Prize for reporting that showed how the government’s bungled crackdown on MS-13 has torn apart the lives of Latino immigrants. The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer, who has emerged as a defining voice of the Trump era, won for his essays on racism...
Paul Keating explains as never before e BY:PAUL KELLY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE ° From:The Australian e October 22, 2011 12:00AM WITH his panoramic view of world affairs sharper than ever, Paul Keating blames the current global crisis on blunders by European and US leaders and warns tha...
in the White House for two years and then leave to run Trump’s reelection campaign. “If you can get this idiot elected twice,” Nunberg marveled, you would achieve something like immortality in politics. But through another window, Bannon couldn’t possibly remain in place. He see...
Exhibit 85: Moody’s Liquidity Stress Index and Default Rates Leading indicators suggest the path of defaults for high yield is lower. Index (%) 25 Trailing 12-Month Rate (%) r 16 Composite Liquidity Stress Index SSS Speculative-Grade Issuer-Weighted Default Rate (Right) a Ua...
Exhibit 39: CFO Optimism About the US Economy Chief financial officers’ confidence is at its highest level in a decade. % 90 % of CFOs More Optimistic Than Previous Quarter Recession 64.1 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Data through December 2016. Note: The survey questi...
Key financial market driver 3 - China growth outlook Key questions e When will the economy bottom out? e What economic policy responses can we expect to support the economy ahead? e How significant is the contagion risk from a possible downturn in the Eurozone? ClO View (Pro...
Exhibit 36: Contribution from Change in Inventories to US GDP Growth Inventories should support growth after five quarters of subtracting from GDP. Recession Contribution Percentage Points, 5-Quarter Moving Total 14 5 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Data through 03...
MO: If Kurds have military confrontation with NAM, our response will depend on circumstances. Pawlenty: What lessons have we learned and what lessons has NAM learned? MO: NAM knows that when he leaves office, he could be prosecuted and put in jail. This will inform his actions....
or the return of the Eurozone crisis; for example
overzealous regulators trying to compensate for their laxness before the crisis
the Iranian regime once again is faced with a crisis
a rally in high yield bonds and a return to pre-crisis spreads of about