Exhibit 87: High Yield Par-Weighted Interest
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Exhibit 87: High Yield Par-Weighted Interest
Coverage Ratio
Interest coverage today stands near all-time highs,
unlike the pre-crisis period.
4
3
2
1
0
SH ae woe
Se ees 8888
SEsesese8 8
RR ERR SRE ES
Data through 03 2016.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Barclays.
Coverage Ratio
5
Exhibit 88: Characteristics of US High
Yield Issuance
Today's high yield universe is much healthier than the
pre-crisis cohort.
Use of New Issuance Proceeds (%)
60 2006-07 Average ™ 2015-16 Average
50 48
40
LBO and M&A
Low-Rated Companies Aggressive Securities
(PIK/Toggle Bonds)
Data as of December 31, 2016.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, JP Morgan.
Of course, a more constructive view of high
yield fundamentals does not necessarily suggest
robust returns. In high yield bonds, today’s below-
average spreads already reflect our subdued default
expectations and are less likely to offset any further
increase in rates. We thus expect returns of around
4% in the year ahead. Although high yield energy
is likely to generate similar gains, the potential
upside is more significant given wider starting
spreads and the potential for distressed bonds to
pull to par amid higher oil prices. Finally, with a
5% return, bank loans should perform marginally
better than bonds, reflecting their attractive
0.25-year duration and continued investor demand
for floating rates—a feature that is back in vogue
now that 3-month LIBOR is almost above the
1% LIBOR floor that more than 90% of bank
loans possess.
While these returns may pale in comparison to
those of last year, they remain attractive relative to
investment grade fixed income, where we expect
rising rates to generate lower returns. Even if rates
stagnate while US growth remains positive, the
default-adjusted return in high yield should still
trump high-quality bonds. Said differently, US
corporate high yield credit remains a better house
in a bad fixed income neighborhood, supporting
our modest overweight recommendation.
Exhibit 89: High Yield Credit Performance During
Periods of Rising Rates
High yield has historically outperformed investment grade
bonds during episodes of rising rates.
Average Return (%)} % of Time Positive
5 @ Average Total Return During 100
Episodes of Rising Rates*
4 © % of Time Positive (Right)
75
3
2
50
1
0
25
-1
2 0
Inv. Grade Fixed High Yield High Yield Bank Loans Bank Loans
Income (IGFI) Less IGFI Return Less IGFI Return
Data as of December 31, 2016.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Barclays, Credit Suisse.
* Defined as 5-year Treasury yield rising more than 70 basis points over a 3-month period.
European Bonds
Unlike their US counterparts, European fixed
income markets did not forfeit all their gains by
the end of last year. This served as a poignant
reminder of how divergent monetary policies
can shape returns. Three ECB actions in March
drove this robust relative performance. First,
the ECB reversed its prior commitment to avoid
Outlook | Investment Strategy Group 71
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014604
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