MO: If Kurds have military confrontation with NAM, our response will depend on

MO: If Kurds have military confrontation with NAM, our response will depend on circumstances. Pawlenty: What lessons have we learned and what lessons has NAM learned? MO: NAM knows that when he leaves office, he could be prosecuted and put in jail. This will inform his actions. Syria and Iraq: would be in our interests if Syria issue was not seen as Sunni v Shia. We would like an opposition that is more broad based. Barzani could help by trying to get Syrian Kurds integrated into Syrian opposition. Baghdad-Ankara relationship is very bad. They want to get rid of NAM so pushing Iraqi Kurds to make trouble for NAM. This could be a gross miscalculation. Davutaglu is personally driving a better deal for Sunnis in Iraq. Post 3 MENA: trade, aid and economics TJP summary: Arab Spring or Islamic Awakening has changed the game in knowable and unknowable ways. Knowable is that the region — in addition to its political crisis - is facing the potential of a very serious financial crisis. Financial stabilization is first order of business. Egypt and KSA are the mother of all problems in the region. (besides Iran, Pakistan and Syria). If Egypt or KSA get out of control it is a global game changer. Kito de Boer McKinsie UAE Arab Spring has had significant and negative financial consequences for region. 1. Not biz as usual. Outcomes are very uncomfortable. Think in terms of paths that could be models: Pakistan or Indonesia or Turkey. 2. Libya could be lighthouse of progress in region; HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025801