Recent bank stress tests conducted by the EU concluded that only Eur 2.5 billion of capital needs to be raised (70 to 80 billion sounds more reasonable to us). And in the package announced last week, the following Orwellian clause indicates how European policymakers feel about ra...
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Key financial market driver 1 - Eurozone crisis Key questions e What is the way forward for Eurozone banks? e What is the most likely course of events in Spain, Italy and Portugal? ¢ In what direction will the economy and the ECB go? ClO View (Probability: 65%*) Austerity and...
priceline.com (PCLN) Our price objective is $1,920 based on 22x our 2018 adj. EPS estimate. The 22x multiple is towards the upper end of Priceline’s historical multiple range of 13-23x and represents a PEG of 1.4x. We think a 22x forward P/E multiple is appropriate given mid- te...
Overweight US Energy Infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): We initiated a direct allocation to energy MLPs in late January 2016 and have maintained that tilt. Given our assumptions about oil prices, we believe that the cash distributions from MLPs are generally secur...
CHART 1: CHINA POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 2015 100+ ; 95-99 | 90-94 it 85-89 OE 80-84 een eee 75-79 | 70-74 a 65-69 ee 60-64 ee y 9 a 2950-54 NN EE>E=—E>——E——E—E—E=—{—E:E—E<{EE 45-49 oo —_ee 40-44 Le 35-39 NN EE—E—E<;_—E=—£{T—E=E£E—EEoEo 30-34 OOE—EOO—E—E—E——Ee 25-29 _ eS ee 20-24...
From: Ens, Amanda Sent: Friday, November 11, 2016 4:04 PM To: ‘jeffrey E.'; "Richard Kahn' Subject: Financials trade for Monday It’s not too late to buy financials as a medium term trade. They’ve run up a lot this week but we’re getting endless calls from generalists asking wh...
Preferred themes e High quality dividend yields (sourced from existing European ® and UK equities) High quality companies with geographically diversified business models that pay sustainable dividends offer an attractive income stream in a low yield world. Historically, dividend...
Emerging market equities MSCI EM (27 June): 913 (last month: 907) UBS View MSCI EM 6-month target: 1,000 ¢ Currency weakness hurt emerging market (EM) equity performance in US-dollar terms year-to-date. We expect EM FX to appreciate against the USD from current levels over a six...
(4.5) shows something about “balance” or the state where capital, consumption and output grow at the same rate. It confirms the standard teaching that balance is possible, although not compelled, when growth rate is constant. It also shows that balance is impossible when growth r...
Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 28 March 2013 Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 [email protected] Local issues must be monitored and understood, though, to decide how to allocate capital and risk. Just to review a few, Japanese policy makers continue to present a con...
Economic Research: How Increasing Income Inequality Is Dampening U.S. Economic Growth, And Possible Ways To Change The Tide After-tax income After-tax income is equal to market income plus transfer income minus federal taxes paid. In assessing the impact of various taxes, indiv...
With Chinese President Xi calling for a heightened effort to reduce systemic financial risk, regulators have started to tackle the bloated shadow banking system. Since taking office in February, Guo Shuqing, China's top banking regulator—with the nickname “Whirlwind Guo” for his...
Financial Experts Tend to ‘Assume What Can Go Wrong, Will Go Wrong, and Usually Manage Expenses in that Way e In projecting scenarios, financial experts would note that USA Inc.’s revenue and expenses are highly correlated to economic changes — for example, a 0.1 percentage poi...
Eurozone equities Euro Stoxx (27 June): 217 (last month: 215) UBS View Euro Stoxx (6-month target): 223 ¢ The crisis in the Eurozone will remain the main driver in the coming months. After the elections in Greece, progress on the reform program will be closely monitored. Spain a...
Key financial market driver 2 - US policy Key questions e Will the economic outlook deteriorate? Will QE3 become necessary? e How will the election outcome change fiscal policy deliberations? © Can politicians find an agreement to avoid sharp fiscal contraction in early 2013...