priceline.com (PCLN)

priceline.com (PCLN) Our price objective is $1,920 based on 22x our 2018 adj. EPS estimate. The 22x multiple is towards the upper end of Priceline’s historical multiple range of 13-23x and represents a PEG of 1.4x. We think a 22x forward P/E multiple is appropriate given mid- teens EPS growth, strong booking trends, Priceline’s leadership position in the global online travel sector, track record of EPS upside, and increased access to the China market via the Ctrip investment. Risks to our PO are 1) a global economic downturn, especially macro-weakness in Europe, leading to fewer travel bookings and pressure on room rates, 2) competition for traffic lowering the company's growth or margin opportunity, 3) hotels favoring their own distribution channels, 4) FX volatility, 5) increased competition from Expedia, TripAdvisor and potentially Google, and 6} the impact of terrorism/disease on global travel trends. The stock has been subject to heavy volatility in the past based on travel industry trends and this volatility could increase due to greater economic uncertainty, especially with macro-trends in Europe. Quotient Technology Inc (QUOT) Our $13 price objective is based on a 16x 2018E EBITDA, a premium to eCommerce peers (11x}, which we think is justified given stickiness of the Retailer |Q platform and the slightly higher growth of 14% in FY17 vs. eCommerce group at 11%). Quotient is a lead operator in online couponing, has a strong technological platform, relationships with CPGs and a platform that is slowly spreading across grocers in the U.S. Downside risks are: 1} further delays in point-of-sale system rollout with retailers, 2) loss of major retailers or CPG, 3) higher-than-expected R&D and S&M costs due to investment, and 4) limited float may contribute to volatility. Upside risks to our analysis are: 1) additional retailers launching on their point-of-sale system, 2) quicker-than-expected transition to digital couponing, 3) new additional digital coupon retail clients (such as Walmart). and 4) targeted couponing lifting average transaction pricing. Snap (SNAP) Our $25 PO is based on our DCF model as we do not expect the company to be profitable until mid- to late-2019 and any earnings-based valuation exercise would require discounting back future earnings. Our DCF assumes approximately $28bn revenue by 2027 based on 525mn DAUs and $50+ in ARPU. Our PO implies 15.5x EV / Revenue, above the peer group at 4x, as we believe Snap's early stage of ad monetization and potential future leverage in the business model warrants a premium valuation multiple to the social media group. Upside risks to our PO are: 1) greater than expected reacceleration in North America DAU growth, 2) more rapid monetization of existing user base with increased ad load and/or new ad formats, and 3) better traction and monetization in International markets. Downside risks to our PO are: 1) further deceleration in user growth that would raise concerns on long-term revenue opportunity, 2) pressure on usage due to competing services, and 3) performance into the first lock-up expiration on 7/29/17. TripAdvisor (TRIP) Our price objective of $40 is based on 25x our 2018 non-GAAP EPS estimate. This multiple represents a modest premium to the group for possibly depressed margins and re-accelerating top-line growth. Downside risks to our price objective are: 1) increasing competition (e.g. Yelp), 2) macro- economic factors (e.g. recession in Europe) impacting the travel industry, 3) challenges Bankof America Merrill Lynch Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 57 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014943