Conference tone bullish into 2017 We recently hosted over 90 public and private companies and 700 attendees at our Future of Financials conference, where investor attendance was up an impressive 66% YoY. The tone from management and investors was uniformly bullish, with more gen...
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rc errti—“(iCssssi‘CSCSOCO LUDO Banks Takeaways With our conference coming a week following a historic US presidential election that helped boost bank stocks by 12%, bank management teams were generally optimistic with regards to the economic outlook heading into 2017. Greater f...
Chart 15: Buying an XLF 1m ATM call financed by selling a QQQ 1m call is Last week, we highlighted that investors who want to rotate out tel attractive way for investors to rotate out of Growth and into of Growth strategies into Value strategies should take advantage of elevated...
regulated by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada; Merrill Lynch (Mexico): Merrill Lynch Mexico
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Top 10 US Ideas Quarterly Q1 Top 10 Ideas Strategy Top 10 US Ideas — 1Q17 The backdrop for risk assets has changed dramatically over the past year. As Michael Hartnett po...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) Major US equity indices soar to all-time highs as the low vol regime persists Friday marked the end of the second full week following the political turmoil on Wed, 17-May. Since then, volatility has once again collapsed (10d realized is at 4...
Chart 13: The -2.5% drop in the NDX on 17-May was a six standard deviation (60) event relative to trailing realized volatility and the fourth worst risk-adjusted daily return since 1985 Chart 14: The 60 sell-off in the NDX on 17-May has helped drive short- dated Tech implied vol...
Chart 40: Volatility measures of major Asian indices (data as of 02-Jun-17) 3Mth ATM Implied Volatility 10D Realized Volatility {2Mth-1Mth ATM Vol Spread 3Mth 90-110 Skew Spread Equity Market Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly Current change percentile Current c...
The Bank of Mexico will meet on 29 September, and a 50bp rate hike is already priced in (Chart 4). A stronger hike, perhaps of 75bp, or a 50bp rate hike accompanied by a hawkish statement could lead to MXN strengthening in the very short run. Chart 3: Net speculative USD/MXN pos...
(FX-neutral). The STR data reflects a continued gradual deceleration in US RevPAR growth and a more recovery in European RevPAR growth as the region laps terrorist attacks and geopolitical uncertainty. Table 13: US and European RevPAR Y/Y Change Mar- us Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Ap...
currencies. The fact that the Central Bank of Brazil will be looking to cut rates in the face of a Fed tightening cycle makes the BRL especially vulnerable in 2017. We would recommend buying MXN against BRL as a relative value trade. 5. The best hedge against escalation of trade...
be equivalent to a SAR100bn cumulative spending cut, which we believe can be accommodated from capex retrenchment. On the basis of the above, fiscal consolidation would likely drive real GDP growth lower to an average of just around 1% of GDP. This estimate is based on a ST GCC f...
Chart 79: How significant do you think robo advisor platforms will become over the next 3-5 years? 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Assets will surpass $1T Assets will hit $500B then level Assets will hit $500B then out decline Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research ¢ Bas...
reverse. Fading high 106’s could be a short-term profit-taking view, or area to enter countertrend short. A final thrust toward July highs of 107.49 is possible and an alternative profit-taking level. A pullback to 105.50 or 104.30 could certainly be bought for the broader uptren...
Higher yields leading to bank, insurance outperformance over REITs The Japanese equity market correction managed to last just for one day after the US election. The insurance sector has been the best performer since the US election on the back of a steeper US Treasury curve and...