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Banks Takeaways
With our conference coming a week following a historic US presidential election that
helped boost bank stocks by 12%, bank management teams were generally optimistic
with regards to the economic outlook heading into 2017. Greater fiscal stimulus that is
expected to spur economic growth coupled with potential regulatory relief has helped
improve the overall sentiment in the sector. When asked what the biggest impact of the
GOP sweep would likely be to bank earnings, 35% noted tax cuts and infrastructure
spurring growth as the biggest impact.
Chart 3: What do you think is the biggest impact of the GOP sweep to bank earnings?
40% 35%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Interest rates rising Tax cuts and Lower regulatory No real impact/too
faster across the curve infrastructure spending burden, driving higher early to tell
due to stronger dollar — spurring growth, ROEs as excess
therefore better loan capital —_ is returned
demand back to shareholders or
reinvested for growth
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
An area that has attracted particular attention among bank investors is around the
current landscape of multifamily lending. We polled the audience around their outlook
for multifamily lending in 2017 and found that 49% of those polled said there was some
concern, but only in certain regions and at certain rental price points. Meanwhile, 29%
noted softening fundamentals that should lead to slower financing activity and
worsening credit metrics (see Chart 4).
Chart 4: How do you view fundamentals for multifamily lending in 2017?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Softening Softening Softening | Someconcern, but No concern
fundamentals fundamentals fundamentals only in certain
should leadto shouldleadto = shouldleadto _—regions and at
slower financing worsening credit slower financing certain rental price
activity next year metrics activity and points
worsening credit
metrics
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Bankof America a 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 3
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014317
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