…ut tapering because the ability or willingness to do QE fades would likely cause a setback. Relief or Revolt relates to European politics. Will Europe follow the route to populism (revolt from the voters) or will we find relief for the markets by the end of 2017 from a Fillon/Mer...
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Politics — populism in the Eurozone? Few predicted that the UK would vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump would win the US presidential election in 2016, least of all pollsters (and many in markets). As Michael Hartnett argues, the rise of populism can be linked to what he refe...
…onal implications. We highlight four such opportunities in this section, specifically: 1) US deregulation; 2) return of Euro zone risk premia; 3) China- linked commodity prices weakening sharply; and 4) Japan’s yield curve targeting triggering a steeper curve and volatility incre...
…ll steepening (2yr -48bps, 2510s +28bps) = 10 quarters, bull flattening (2yr - 27 ps, 2510s -30bps) = 12 quarters Long Europe equities via yield stocks & index dividends We continue to run two yield related trades in European equities. First, we remain long a broad selection of...
…y Treasuries versus 30y matched Libor swap at 3mL+56bp. Target 3mL + Obp, stop loss 3mL+75bp. Tail risk 2: Comeback of Eurozone risk premia EZ risk hedges: 30s50s flatteners in BTPs, buy EUR/HUF vol In Europe, the biggest market risk for 2017 is arguably a comeback of stress o...
Eurozone political calendar 2017 4 December: Italian constitutional referendum Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case. BTPs and the banks recaps remain a tail risks for the I...
…ministration could staunch the flow of trade—an outcome that would be particularly damaging to emerging markets. And in Europe, a victory of the far right in the French presidential election could unleash fears about France exiting the European Union and endanger the survival of...
From: Thomas Jr., Landon Sent: 11/14/2016 3:32:12 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Subject: Fwd: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HR...
…eal? Seems too obvious. On Thu, Nov 10, 2016 at 4:58 PM, jeffrey E. <[email protected]> wrote: long dow , short yen euro and pound. long reits, On Thu, Nov 10, 2016 at 10:57 PM, Thomas Jr., Landon________________________F wrote: You called it! How are you positioned re market...
lucasferreira | Brexit A© nova tentativa britA¢nica de flexibilizar 23 Jun 2016, 0 | positive mf comunidade europeia https://t.co/6bDT FvqvfF 07:30 - CEST BetOnPolitic | BREXIT: THE UK DECIDES 23 Jun 2016, | Odds for 0 | negative Ss 07:30-CEST | every Get 4/1 Remain or 10/1 Leave...
Chart 27: 3% Global GDP growth the tipping point for EPS Europe trailing EPS growth vs World GDP Chart 28: Synchronised rise in leading indicators globally augurs well for earnings recovery — especially if PMs kick on to or above mid-50s 50% 7% 65 60 40% - ' 0 30% 504 20% : 56...
…a 23 Jun 2016, | EspaAta 4 | neutral Semana EconA?mica: el Brexit. 07:30 - CEST https://t.co/O0lI7Y2zGoqP fxnewsfeedc | Euro to Look Past PMI Data with "Brexit" Worries at 23 Jun 2016, 0 | positive om the Forefront https://t.co/z8L41rploJ 07:30 - CEST hanshafner | Yes! | can't wa...
…s Manaaer LLC NewYork NY LLC 522 OT Bali Technical Services Manaaer Member Coro New York. NY Corooratlon 523 OT Connect Europe Llmiled Turnberrv. Scolland Forelan Entltv 524 OT Endeavor I LLC NewYork NY LLC 525 OT Endeavor 1 Member Coro NewYork NY Corporallon 526 OT Jeddah Techni...
…5 vols off 1.0930 spot)(1 Apr 2016) 4 Liquid Insight | 22 September 2016 * EUR is underpricing Brexit and that shorting Euro was a cheaper way to express such a view via options. CHF tends to perform strongly when risks become more localized. Closed on 28 Aug 2016: Buy EUR/USD 6m...
…is right. Since I began working on this piece in September, Epstein predictions about the price of oil, yen, ruble, and euro have all born out. ((If I had invested $100,000 the way Epstein said I should in early HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_022851