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Saudi Arabia. When Saudi Arabia wanted
document IMAGES-010-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029719.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…ubsequent GCC intervention in Bahrain have turned the tables, making Saudi security backing a necessity for the smaller Gulf monarchies. From their perspective, American forces are clearly more capable than Saudi forces, but given the alignment of their interests, Riyadh is a mor...

dependence on American military power
document IMAGES-010-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029725.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…is modest but increasing, as evidenced by its recent peacekeeping dispatches to the region and naval port visits in the Gulf. Beying is likely to send more naval forces to the Gulf to increase its presence there and enhance its ability to protect the sea lanes which bring oil to...

BREAKING DOWN DEMOCRACY: Goals, Strategies, and Methods of Modern Authoritarians
document IMAGES-005-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_019280.txt Dec 20, 2013 House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

… December 8, 2011, http://www.salon.com/2011/12/08/how_bahrain works washington/; Akbar Shahid Ahmed, “How Wealthy Arab Gulf States Shape the Washington Influence Game,” Huffington Post, September 2, 2015, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/arab-gulf-states-washington_us_55e62be...

interpretation by experts employing various explicit or implicit
document IMAGES-004-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018111.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…ese conventional capabilities provide Iran a substantial ability for a local fight in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and along its borders.10 Iran “leans” on the Persian Gulf states from a military and political perspective. Shi‘a populations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia c...

But comparison to the short-lived flowering of protests 40 years ago
document IMAGES-007-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023459.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

… Bahrain," he was quoted as saying. The intensified wrangling across the Persian—or, as the Saudis insist, the Arabian—Gulf has strained relations between the U.S. and important Arab allies, helped to push oil prices into triple digits and tempered U.S. support for some of the p...

with terror attacks, a major military response was highly unlikely. Saddam’s
document IMAGES-009-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_028095.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

… came just two days before our final exercise in the Negev, would have agreed with the attack. After the victory in the Gulf War, Bush had deliberately stopped short of sending American forces on to Baghdad. He was also vice-president, under Reagan, when Israel had bombed Saddam’...

November 21, 2011
document TEXT-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030814.txt Nov 21, 2011 House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…ds oil, it could end up on tankers to China; and the US will end up importing more of its energy needs from the Persian Gulf and Venezuela. Could misperceptions about wind, solar and biofuel 8 feasibility explain why some people are opposed to this extension? Unclear. The art of...

with terror attacks, a major military response was highly unlikely. Saddam’s
document IMAGES-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_011718.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

… came just two days before our final exercise in the Negev, would have agreed with the attack. After the victory in the Gulf War, Bush had deliberately stopped short of sending American forces on to Baghdad. He was also vice-president, under Reagan, when Israel had bombed Saddam’...

other. Wars are notorious for yielding unintended and unexpected
document IMAGES-004-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018104.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

20 other. Wars are notorious for yielding unintended and unexpected consequences; for reasons explained below, a war against Iran is even harder than usual to bound analytically. Complexity, Uncertainty and War Our first consideration in analyzing the likely course of war with...

market.7 A “social war” would involve appeals to Islamic solidarity
document IMAGES-004-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018110.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

26 market.7 A “social war” would involve appeals to Islamic solidarity and attempts to weaken popular support for adversary governments through influence operations and attacks aimed at civilians. In such a broad and protracted contest, the United States might not enjoy a favora...

Enemy disinformation, as well as simple error, can also set us on the
document IMAGES-004-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_018105.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

21 Enemy disinformation, as well as simple error, can also set us on the wrong track. The enemy acts not just on the battlefield but also through an ability to influence our understanding of the situation by means of denial and deception. In this and other ways complexity reinfo...

been different in each of them. In the Yom Kippur War, the problem was not
document IMAGES-009-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_028060.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

been different in each of them. In the Yom Kippur War, the problem was not just Eli Zeira’s failure to activate the sayeret’s listening devices in Eygpt, deeply damaging though that was. It was judgement. Inside Aman, a kind of groupthink had taken hold. It was rooted in a confid...