…ubsequent GCC intervention in Bahrain have turned the tables, making Saudi security backing a necessity for the smaller Gulf monarchies. From their perspective, American forces are clearly more capable than Saudi forces, but given the alignment of their interests, Riyadh is a mor...
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…is modest but increasing, as evidenced by its recent peacekeeping dispatches to the region and naval port visits in the Gulf. Beying is likely to send more naval forces to the Gulf to increase its presence there and enhance its ability to protect the sea lanes which bring oil to...
given Egypt’s much-savored relationship with other Gulf countries (not to mention the United States). It does represent a re-balancing of relationships in a changing Middle East nonetheless. A new round of talks between Iran and the P5+1 (five permanent members of the Security C...
… December 8, 2011, http://www.salon.com/2011/12/08/how_bahrain works washington/; Akbar Shahid Ahmed, “How Wealthy Arab Gulf States Shape the Washington Influence Game,” Huffington Post, September 2, 2015, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/arab-gulf-states-washington_us_55e62be...
…ese conventional capabilities provide Iran a substantial ability for a local fight in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and along its borders.10 Iran “leans” on the Persian Gulf states from a military and political perspective. Shi‘a populations in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia c...
… Bahrain," he was quoted as saying. The intensified wrangling across the Persian—or, as the Saudis insist, the Arabian—Gulf has strained relations between the U.S. and important Arab allies, helped to push oil prices into triple digits and tempered U.S. support for some of the p...
growing danger similar to Iraq after the First Gulf War (or
a few years later in the second Gulf War
… came just two days before our final exercise in the Negev, would have agreed with the attack. After the victory in the Gulf War, Bush had deliberately stopped short of sending American forces on to Baghdad. He was also vice-president, under Reagan, when Israel had bombed Saddam’...
…ds oil, it could end up on tankers to China; and the US will end up importing more of its energy needs from the Persian Gulf and Venezuela. Could misperceptions about wind, solar and biofuel 8 feasibility explain why some people are opposed to this extension? Unclear. The art of...
… came just two days before our final exercise in the Negev, would have agreed with the attack. After the victory in the Gulf War, Bush had deliberately stopped short of sending American forces on to Baghdad. He was also vice-president, under Reagan, when Israel had bombed Saddam’...
20 other. Wars are notorious for yielding unintended and unexpected consequences; for reasons explained below, a war against Iran is even harder than usual to bound analytically. Complexity, Uncertainty and War Our first consideration in analyzing the likely course of war with...
26 market.7 A “social war” would involve appeals to Islamic solidarity and attempts to weaken popular support for adversary governments through influence operations and attacks aimed at civilians. In such a broad and protracted contest, the United States might not enjoy a favora...
21 Enemy disinformation, as well as simple error, can also set us on the wrong track. The enemy acts not just on the battlefield but also through an ability to influence our understanding of the situation by means of denial and deception. In this and other ways complexity reinfo...
been different in each of them. In the Yom Kippur War, the problem was not just Eli Zeira’s failure to activate the sayeret’s listening devices in Eygpt, deeply damaging though that was. It was judgement. Inside Aman, a kind of groupthink had taken hold. It was rooted in a confid...