Exhibit 28: Total Foreign Currency Holdings of China’s Official Sector If the recent pace of decline continues, China's reserves could soon fall below the IMF's adequacy threshold. US$ billions 5,000 Mumm P30C FX reserves Gums Other official FX holdings == Scenario 1 (avg. pac...
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Last year witnessed a growing repudiation of this status quo, evident in the surprise outcome of the UK and Italian referenda, as well as US presidential election. As we begin 2017, these winds of change are gaining force. Central banks are acknowledging the often counterproducti...
Exhibit 85: Moody’s Liquidity Stress Index and Default Rates Leading indicators suggest the path of defaults for high yield is lower. Index (%) 25 Trailing 12-Month Rate (%) r 16 Composite Liquidity Stress Index SSS Speculative-Grade Issuer-Weighted Default Rate (Right) a Ua...
It follows that if real GDP is understated, then what appears to be a slow recovery is not as slow as reported and what appears to be a period of low productivity growth is not as low as reported. We believe that the evidence favors the mismeasurement argument. At a September 20...
Exhibit 23: Policy Rate Path Projections We expect the pace of monetary policy tightening to accelerate but remain benign. Federal Funds Rate (%) 405 ISG View GIR View Market Implied Median Federal Reserve Projection 3.5 5 3.0 25 + 2.0 - 0.5 0.0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 D...
Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 () Global Financial Crisis 80.9 ® First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) @) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis G) Greek Default 60 + @...
Exhibit 91: EM Local Debt Currencies and Developed Market Interest Rates Rising global interest rates would be a headwind to EM local debt. % 1/1/2016 = 100 1.2 Average G3 10-Year Rate 34 EM Local Debt FX (Right, Inverted) 96 1.0 r 98 0.8 00 0.6 02 04 0.4 06 0.2 08 0.0 10 Jan-...
Exhibit 25: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The labor market recovery has led to a steady increase in consumer confidence. Index Points 160 140 20 113.7 91.5 Conference Board Consumer Confidence G4 —« Historical Average Post-Global Financial Crisis Average 0 = 1...
Exhibit 94: US Crude Oil Production Supply has stabilized after declining by 1 million barrels/day from its peak. Million Barrels/Day Million Barrels/Day 2.0 10 9.6 15 g 1.0 l. ~ ME YY US Crude Production Change US Crude Production Levels (Right) -1.0 6 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14...
Exhibit 83: Ratio of Municipal Bond Yields to Treasury Yields Current municipal bond yields offer a larger valuation buffer to absorb risks than in the past. Ratio (%) 100 mCurrent mAverage Since 2000 Average Since 1987 95 93 5-Year Ratio 10-Year Ratio Data as of December 3...
Exhibit 63: Relative Performance of “Stable” and “Volatile” EAFE Stocks Investors have recently shifted toward firms more exposed to the business cycle. Relative Return (%) 8 5 m Stable = Volatile 6 4 Last 3 2016-to-Date 5 Years 10 Years 1987-2007 = Since 1987 Months Annua...
Exhibit 48: S&P 500 Price-to-Trend Earnings vs. Subsequent Calendar-Year Price Return Starting valuation multiples tell us little about equity returns over the following year. S&P 500 Returns 1 Year Forward (%) 50 - R?=5.2% 40 « ° oe 30 - ° ° % ¢ + 20 ¢ @,¢ o . * ° 10 wep see...
From: Thomas Jr., Landon Sent: 11/29/2016 6:33:42 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Subject: Fwd: My Thoughts on Currencies Importance: High The smartest/most amusing piece of research I have read so far on Trump/global economy. You should pass on to DJT brain trust...
Table 19: S&P 500 companies with high (>35%) median 5-year effective tax rates and low (<10%) foreign sales Foreign Sales 5-Year Median Effective Tax Ticker Company Name Sector Industry % Rate % FE FirstEnergy Corp. Utilities Electric Utilities 0% 35.3 ZION Zions Bancorporation...
priceline.com (PCLN) Our price objective is $1,920 based on 22x our 2018 adj. EPS estimate. The 22x multiple is towards the upper end of Priceline’s historical multiple range of 13-23x and represents a PEG of 1.4x. We think a 22x forward P/E multiple is appropriate given mid- te...