… had happened when I had come tantalizingly close to finalizing a peace deal with Syria’s then-dying dictator, Hafez al-Assad, a few months earlier. Yet these three dedicated men – Gili, who was by training a lawyer; Shlomo, an academic; and Danny, a former Mossad chief – had jus...
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…e International Peace Institute’s (IPI) Middle East program over many years. I dedicate the book to my beloved wife, Ambassador Mona Juul, my companion in war and peace, without whom I would never have become involved in the imbroglio of the Middle East. Paris 16 September 2013 T...
…st as the “good guys,” battling corrupt, autocratic leaders. Personally, I wish that both Moammar Gaddafi and Bashar al-Assad would give up power tomorrow. But that doesn’t seem in the cards: Both leaders have shown they’re willing to kill thousands of their citizens to hang on,...
…st vulnerable to Iran when it is weak and divided and we haven’t done enough to help Iraq. Iraqi’s are worried that an Assad exit will push Iran to double down on Iraq. JS: limit Iran’s influence on Iraq by isolating Iran in region. Reducing Iran’s incluence in region is key....
…weapon. At a recent security conference, Prince Turki al Faisal, a former head of the Saudi intelligence service and ambassador to the U.K. and the U.S., pointedly suggested that if Iran were to develop a weapon, Saudi Arabia might well feel pressure to develop one of its own. T...
peace with all four neighboring Arab states. And it can be argued now that Assad may see negotiations with Israel as a way to climb back from the pariah status he is earning, making him at this juncture truly open to a new peace process. Such thinking, whether in Jerusalem or th...
22 be, it is unclear that the newcomers would follow the Assads' cautious-use doctrine and refusal to share chemical weapons with non- state groups, or that the new leaders would be able to maintain strict security measures at the chemical sites. Meanwhile, it's possible that a...
…Syria’s Farouk al-Sharaa, however, he pointedly, though politely, said he felt that would not be appropriate. President Assad had broken off talks with us earlier in the year, insisting that we first commit explicitly to honor Rabin’s “pocket deposit” on the Golan Heights. Still,...
…ia was then, as it is now, judged as simply too big to fail. There was something perversely comforting about having the Assads around. I had my own fair share of illusions during my government career, but the Assads were never one of them. I could never quite understand my colle...
…e level as Makhlouf is absurd. Shaaban is viewed as a spokesman for the president, but she plays no central role in the Assad-Makhlouf constellation. She doubtless needed a green light to go ahead with the interview, one that required some measure of approval by Makhlouf and Assa...
…ll make the real bargaining necessary for peace far more difficult, perhaps even impossible. I also had doubts whether Assad was ready for real peace: embassies, open borders, personal contact between Syrians and Israelis, and ideally an internationally backed free-trade manufac...
More importantly, even if the Assad’s regime is overthrown, the opposition is unlikely to succeed in forming a stable and functional democratic government. Admittedly, Bashar Assad has made immense mistakes since the beginning of the war. Human rights have been viciously violated...
…ng, all of Syria's dozen or so ethnic and religious communities are now marching under the banner of revolt against the Assad dynasty. More important, perhaps, the day brought the first signs that at least parts of the security forces may be reluctant to shoot demonstrators in t...
…as alleged that the regime had had secret dealings with the Jewish state. A “palace coup” inside the leadership brought Assad to power as president in 1970. Thereafter the power of the state was firmly concentrated in Alawi hands. Of the officers commanding the 47th Syrian Tank B...
…unced ‘rebalancing to Asia’. We cannot secure WMD without boots on the ground. Meghan O. 1. Iran’s reaction to fall of Assad. Look to 2007 actions agains Iran. Didn’t have Iranian ‘pay back’ rather, Iran slowed down its nuke activity 2. Post Assad, need a peace keeping force. Th...