If only the Syrians could be brought around, presidents have believed
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If only the Syrians could be brought around, presidents have believed
for generations, life would be so much easier. The United States
wasn't alone in this illusion -- the Israelis, Arabs, Europeans,
and Russians felt the same way. Like the Wall Street banks, Syria was
then, as it is now, judged as simply too big to fail. There was
something perversely comforting about having the Assads around.
I had my own fair share of illusions during my government career,
but the Assads were never one of them. I could never quite
understand my colleagues' fascination with the brutal Syrian regime.
To me, Bashar al-Assad was a brutal dictator who wanted to be the
Frank Sinatra of the Middle East -- obsessed with doing things his
own way to the point that he priced himself out of peace with Israel
and a relationship with the United States. It's striking that every other
Arab state, with the possible exception of Libya, managed to
establish a close relationship with the United States. Not Assad.
Third, Obama's approach toward Syria has been managed by the
realists. This stands in contrast with his Libya policy, where liberal
interventionists in the administration and neocons outside clamored
for action. This group of realists includes the president, who knows
his options on Syria aren't great. He's being told that American
leverage isn't great and that if he calls for Assad's head and the Syrian
despot survives, he'll have lost access to a key player in the region.
And after all, what could he do that would deter a regime in a fight
for its life? Pull U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford from Damascus?
Impose a travel ban on Assad and his family? Press the Europeans to
freeze Assad's money?
In a world of symbols, these steps may make an important point
about American values. However, none of them will make a
difference in how events play out in Syria.
Simply put, the Obama administration is worried about creating
a worse situation if Assad falls. Take your pick of scary scenarios:
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030075
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