Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] GEMs Paper #26 Saudi Arabia: beyond oil but not so fast Transforming Saudi Arabia, but challenges abound The Saudi National Transformation Plan (NTP) bodes well for compre...
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a ROCKEFELLER NY ASSET MANAGEMENT November 1, 2017 A “Vixing” Puzzle | Market’s unusual lack of volatility; Be fearful when others are greedy ctober has historically been a spooky month in which some of the biggest market declines took place — the crash of 1929, 1987’s Blac...
been one of Modigliani’s points in his interruptions. Federal deposit insurance subsidizes cheap money and keeps lending rates low. Most tradition associates easy money with growth and prosperity. Higher interest rates are associated with restraint in investment and consumption...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) The Fed turns more hawkish, though vol remains subdued Last week, unsurprisingly the Fed opted to hike benchmark rates another 25bps. However, the market was more focused on the FOMC’s unexpectedly hawkish message, which indicated that it is...
Table 9: Summary of open trades as of 19-Jun-17 Open Open __ Expected Date Level Trade Term 6.9% (FB), 1.2% (AMZN), 9.4% (NFLX), 6.2% (GOOGL) Trade Description Rationale Buy 6m ATM calls on FB, AMZN, NFLX and GOOGL 30-May-17 Stock replace FANG stocks Buy a 6m outperformance c...
Exhibit 23: Policy Rate Path Projections We expect the pace of monetary policy tightening to accelerate but remain benign. Federal Funds Rate (%) 405 ISG View GIR View Market Implied Median Federal Reserve Projection 3.5 5 3.0 25 + 2.0 - 0.5 0.0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 D...
Chart 80: Stocks mostly trade above ex-pipeline value Pipelines are free for most stocks 20% 15% 5% -5% -15% -14% 16% — -16% 25% Boe -35% mPremium/(Discount) to ex pipeline DCF Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Overweight Utilities Chart 81: Growth from new p...
The vocabulary can also include the standard distinction among stocks, flows and rates. These are only definitions, not assumptions. Stocks means value measured in money units, say dollars. This is not the same as stock in the sense of equity securities, although those can be exa...
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] Japan Macro Watch USD/JPY: Buy-on-dip cycle to continue; 115- 120 by end-2017 Buy-on-dip cycle continues While we had acknowledged the risk of the “final JPY strength” th...
sales, relocation services—is depressed. Homeowners are worse off, too, because the value of one of their vital assets is eroding. House prices have already fallen by 32 percent nationwide from the 2006 peak. And they have further to go. The latest readings on the S&P/Case-Schil...
Options Risk Statement Potential Risk at Expiry & Options Limited Duration Risk Unlike owning or shorting a stock, employing any listed options strategy is by definition governed by a finite duration. The most severe risks associated with general options trading are total loss...
Morgan Stanley | ®esearcs NORTH AMERICA INSIGHT Brokers & Asset Managers Comps Sheet Exhibit 50: Brokers & Asset Managers Comps Sheet Brokers & Asset Managers 26/Jan/18 EPS As % Dividend Earnings Per Share (EPS) © CAGR (%) Price/Earnings (P/E) EV/ EBITDA of AuM Yield (%) LTM N...
Exhibit 25: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The labor market recovery has led to a steady increase in consumer confidence. Index Points 160 140 20 113.7 91.5 Conference Board Consumer Confidence G4 —« Historical Average Post-Global Financial Crisis Average 0 = 1...
Cheapest tail-risk Hedges Adarsh Sinha Ralph Axel Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) MLPF&S [email protected] [email protected] Gabriele Foa Tony Morriss MLI (UK) Merrill Lynch (Australia) [email protected] [email protected] Shuichi Ohsaki Merrill Lynch (Japan) shuichi.o...
The combination of these factors suggest Japanese equities have further to run. We also see the position as being complementary to our EM position since whereas a stronger USD is a drag on EM performance, it is beneficial for the NKY position. Chart 31: Japan equities have outpe...