firms can be naturally slowed by internal directives. Bad outflow such falling CNY deposits among foreign subsidiaries of China banks can also be managed. However, it is the inherent speculative and unstable nature of domestic capital flight that we characterize as ugly flows tha...
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Exhibit 31: US Cyclical Spending There is scope for business and consumer spending to increase in the US economy. % of Potential GDP Recession 32 4 US Cyclical Spending = — — — = Average 30 28 26 + 24 22 20 18 = = 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015...
Exhibit 28: Total Foreign Currency Holdings of China’s Official Sector If the recent pace of decline continues, China's reserves could soon fall below the IMF's adequacy threshold. US$ billions 5,000 Mumm P30C FX reserves Gums Other official FX holdings == Scenario 1 (avg. pac...
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] European Equity Strategy 2017 year ahead - Refining the reflation rotation Key takeaways ¢ 2017 - Reflation, Reversal, Rotation, Relief or Revolt. EPS to turn +ve but pol...
Ihave a feeling that revenue increases will be a material (e.g., 25% or more) part of the deal. The Peterson Foundation’s sampling of 6 policy groups shown below indicate that 5 of 6 recommend revenue increases compared to where we are today; the Heritage Foundation’s “Woody Guth...
Democratic flavor-of-the day candidate. The media and political class will predetermine irrelevance otherwise. A Democrat-leaning candidate would have to top the ideal third-party ticket. We need someone with a shot at snaking a plurality of the vote in the blue states Hillary...
o account the specific investment o that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any o security or the information in the prospectus or ot! Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this re...
169 6 “PER RSs AK OU... PHRMA LER,” Japan+, November 10, 2015, accessed October 11, 2018, http://japan-plus.net/952. 7 Daniel Moss, “As China Steps Up, Japan Isn’t Stepping Aside,” Bloomberg, July 10, 2018, accessed October 11, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018...
3 have canceled elective surgery for lack of supplies. Electricity remains maddeningly irregular. The much-publicized opening of the Egyptian border has fizzled, so people remain trapped here. The number of residents living on less than $1.60 a day has tripled in four years. Thr...
Europe. The average global growth pace of the past 3 months has fallen to only 1.8%, barely more than half of trend. The expectation remains that Q1 should come in at 2.4% as both Japan and the Euro area exit recession. ° While staying overall long risk markets, both credit and...
/ BARAK / 132 its terror attack on a Pan American airliner in the late 1980s. Or, as in South Africa, that a change in nuclear policy might come from a change in régime in Tehran. Yet realistically, we couldn’t count on either. And there was no doubt in our minds that a nuclear...
currencies. The fact that the Central Bank of Brazil will be looking to cut rates in the face of a Fed tightening cycle makes the BRL especially vulnerable in 2017. We would recommend buying MXN against BRL as a relative value trade. 5. The best hedge against escalation of trade...
Higher yields leading to bank, insurance outperformance over REITs The Japanese equity market correction managed to last just for one day after the US election. The insurance sector has been the best performer since the US election on the back of a steeper US Treasury curve and...
Yet the most immediate security concerns were right next door. In Lebanon, Hizbollah fighters were being armed and financed by the Iranians and by Syria as well. They were mounting increasingly effective operations against the Israeli troops we’d left in the security zone. Even c...
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