From: Ens, Amanda Sent: Friday, November 11, 2016 4:04 PM To: ‘jeffrey E.'; "Richard Kahn' Subject: Financials trade for Monday It’s not too late to buy financials as a medium term trade. They’ve run up a lot this week but we’re getting endless calls from generalists asking wh...
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Notable trends and dislocations (Europe) European equities ended the week lower mainly due to a tech-driven sell-off on 12-Jun during which the SX8P (European tech sector) witnessed its largest 1-day decline since the UK’s EU referendum. Nevertheless, implied vols across Europea...
…n to tip him off about any smart scientists Thinking Machines might hire. Feynman, pushing 60, volunteered himself and spent his summer vacations for the next ten years with Hillis and his team.1?! When it came time to test the first Connection Machine, it was Feynman’s data that...
Reagan's second-term innovations on currency and monetary affairs, trade, debt and development. Reagan advanced a new international system to match the revival of capitalism after the oil shocks and stagflation of the 1970s. America's success in the 1980s contributed both to the...
…he heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key’. Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium grey shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart i...
…an adversary country. The NSA, CIA and Department of Defense therefore had little choice but to assume the worst had happened: Russia and China had obtained access to the “keys of the kingdom”. Whatever the extent of the actual damage, it was up to General Alexander’s replacement...
…ation of swap spreads; 30s50s BTP flattener; long EUR/HUF vol; long AUD/USD digital puts; 1y10s20s conditional bear steepener in Japan. There are three key lessons on tail risks from 2016: 1) tail-risk probabilities are generally “fatter” than commonly assumed (Brexit and Trump’...
…arry strategies are supposed to work better over long investment horizons, so that the cushion provided by the carry compensates for the currency volatility through mean reversion. Here, we analyze carry from a different perspective, as our goal is to identify standalone attract...
…n EM performance, it is beneficial for the NKY position. Chart 31: Japan equities have outperformed during US bear-steepening led by cyclicals, banks and insurance 125 Japan Sector = cyclical outperform on 10 4 UST bear-steepening 8 6 4 2 a 2 4 6 8 -10 424 USDJPY DXY MSCI JP MS...
…he heading "Fundamental Equity Opinion Key’. Dark grey shading indicates the security is restricted with the opinion suspended. Medium grey shading indicates the security is under review with the opinion withdrawn. Light grey shading indicates the security is not covered. Chart i...
…d decision- making by management teams as a 21% federal tax rate vs. 35% previously implies less tax leakage and less expense in moving from single-layer taxation to a double taxation structure. While investors would give up economics in the process, the new business structure wo...
…be repealed, but Republican financial policy leaders appear pro- markets and have flagged free movement of capital via open markets as the best policy for economic growth and risk transparency. There are several dislocations across markets today that we think have a chance of no...
gold was going to Viola or Meryl. This year there seemed to be more parties than ever. Vanity Fair publisher Edward Menicheschi staged a staggering six nights of “CAMPAIGN HOLLYWOOD? Ermenegildo Zenga and Colin and Livia Firth hosted an intimate dinner at the Chateau Marmont to...
Chart 18: European intra-sector realised correlation is near a 10-year Table 3: Personal & household goods, utilities, real-estate, autos and low, which suggests that we are currently in a stock pickers insurance are the top 5 sectors with the lowest 10-yr percentile of intra- en...
…o could help set standards about exchange- rate policies and serve as a referee that blows a whistle, even if it cannot penalize. The IMF and the World Trade Organization should anticipate this risk and give effect to the existing WTO agreement that economies must "avoid manipula...