…ts hedging less, be happy. That will signal better days. Finally. The IMF does offer a bit of more heartening news: The global wipe out finally seems to be receding. "The world economy is stabilizing," the IMF reports. Its global economic growth projection of 2.5 percent in 2010...
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…96% 0.36% 0.00% 1.75% 2.49% 1.11% 0.28% 1Mth Change 2.00% 0.38% 4.10% 2.52% 3.76% 497% 6.28% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Table 9: Statistics on implied, realised, skew and term structure for 3-month and 12-month vols (emerging markets) 3-month {2-month EEM US IBOV...
…5 years, the average number of XLF calls that could be purchased was only 0.80. == Average Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data from 9-Jun-12 to 16-Jun-17. Table 2: Current S&P500 volatility and correlation measures relative to the prior two year of historical dail...
…verview. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 16(5), 361- 370. Elsevier Ltd.; Ferguson, R. B. (2006). Tribal, “Ethnic,” and Global. Jn: The Psychology of Resolving Global Conflict: From war to peace, volume I, Nature vs Nurture (Ed. M. Fitzduff, C.E. Stout; Lawrence Erlbaum Ass), 1-1...
…dices.°° We point to three examples to illustrate the mismeasurement argument. First, our colleagues in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research (GIR) have pointed out that the official price indices for information and communication technology show an implausible gap between t...
… typical realized Bf "election day" move of 1.5% (see 19 Chart 14) 46 “Sept6 Oct 16 Novi6 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Daily data from 2-Jun-09 to 5-Aug-16. *Day count adjustment = we adjust the VIX futures curve to reflect the Trade-Day/252 day-count convention...
…ts should be motivated to pursue best practic- es, having experienced the con- sequences of bad behavior long after the Global Financial Crisis. Tighter regulations, enacted in the aftermath of the Global Fi- nancial Crisis, including Basel III and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Refo...
… 1.5y 2y RTY change (RHS) SPX change (RHS) SPX 17-May === SPX 1-Jun RTY 17-May =——_RTY 1-Jun Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Chart 20: 2017 is already the 5" calmest year for the VIX with 76 YTD closes below 12. Despite the short-lived vol spike on 17-May, the VIX ha...
Exhibit 98: Full-Year Average Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Oil consumption in 2017 could exceed supply for the first time since 2013. Million Barrels/Day 100 Average Forecast World Production oS + World Consumption 98 Production Exceeded Consumption wa Between 2014 a...
…% 0.1% 53.0% 0.6% TWSE 10.7% 0.3% 8.2% 1.2% 1.5% 14.1% 2.9% 0.4% 12.6% -1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Chart 41: Index correlation is generally further away from their 10-year Except for the ASX200, Asian stock and index vols are more lows while...
… precipitated notable declines in US shale output (see Exhibit 94). Lower oil prices have also supported above- average global demand growth, helping to absorb excess inventories. Lastly, OPEC agreed to lower production in November 2016, while also securing a promise from its si...
…f course, the liaison between the NSA and its allies was a two way street. In 2013, none of these other countries had a global network of geosynchronous sensors in outer space and under the ocean that could monitor signals from missile launching, submarine, military deployments,...
…ave to face a very unpleasant fact: And that unpleasant fact is that there is a major war brewing, a war that’s already global. It’s going global in scale, and today’s technology, today’s media, today’s access to weapons of mass destruction, it’s going to lead to a global conflic...
…at Asda’s expense 8.3% 7.8% 7.3% ——Retail EBITDA margin 6.8% PP FF FF gh gh gh gh gr gh gh Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg, Datastream, IBES Chart 68: Retail is expensive on a range of metrics Tesco Aldi Lidl Waitrose Morrisons Sainsbury's Asda -100 -...
… 3Q22E m Guyana m Utica m NMB Valhall m Stampede gJDA mEG m Other GoM mOther/base mBakken Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates Critically, Hess has multiple levers to pull that reverse production declines as cash becomes available from completion of NMB and St...