It follows that if real GDP is understated, then what appears to be a slow recovery is not as slow as reported and what appears to be a period of low productivity growth is not as low as reported. We believe that the evidence favors the mismeasurement argument. At a September 20...
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Exhibit 23: Policy Rate Path Projections We expect the pace of monetary policy tightening to accelerate but remain benign. Federal Funds Rate (%) 405 ISG View GIR View Market Implied Median Federal Reserve Projection 3.5 5 3.0 25 + 2.0 - 0.5 0.0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 D...
Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 () Global Financial Crisis 80.9 ® First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) @) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis G) Greek Default 60 + @...
Chart 13: The 2016 election move implied by the VIX term structure is, in our estimate’, approx. 1.4%... ---0--- Interpolated Oct future (level where Sep/Oct/Nov Fly = 0) —2e— Expected Oct future based on median level of ~1M/2M/3M fly em=@=—= \//X futures (adjusted for holidays)...
®) ROCKEFELLER & CO. A iN New Cot - A, Banks and insurance companies play a vital role in our financial system, providing savings, fi- nancing, investment, and pay- ment services to consumers and businesses of all sizes. Our mod- ern economy requires a stable, trustworthy, an...
Jan Loeys Global Asset Allocation (1-212) 834-5874 The J.P. Morgan View J.P. Morgan [email protected] 09 November 2012 Disclosures Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) Major US equity indices soar to all-time highs as the low vol regime persists Friday marked the end of the second full week following the political turmoil on Wed, 17-May. Since then, volatility has once again collapsed (10d realized is at 4...
On a Net Worth Basis, USA Inc. Also Sits in Middle of Pack vs. Western European Peer Governments Illustrative Estimates* of Government Net Worth, 2009 o. 400% ---------------.--.--..-___._..._._. . .- rs} Better Than USA Worse Than USA x) = 0% t T T T T T T T T T 1 G s S a Cos...
Exhibit 98: Full-Year Average Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Oil consumption in 2017 could exceed supply for the first time since 2013. Million Barrels/Day 100 Average Forecast World Production oS + World Consumption 98 Production Exceeded Consumption wa Between 2014 a...
ACKRELL CAPITAL CHAPTERV_ Global Cannabis Regulation In 2012, the presidents of Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico requested the UN to focus its next special session on drugs on policy reform rather than on a mere progress review and continuation of the same policies. In 2014, the G...
Chart 40: Volatility measures of major Asian indices (data as of 02-Jun-17) 3Mth ATM Implied Volatility 10D Realized Volatility {2Mth-1Mth ATM Vol Spread 3Mth 90-110 Skew Spread Equity Market Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly Current change percentile Current c...
Exhibit 96: OPEC 2016 Production Cut Agreement and Recent Changes If fully implemented, OPEC's proposed cut would reverse production growth from the prior 6 months. Million Barrels/Day 14 m Production Change in 6 Months Leading up to the November 2016 OPEC Meeting 12 m Novembe...
157 Of course, the liaison between the NSA and its allies was a two way street. In 2013, none of these other countries had a global network of geosynchronous sensors in outer space and under the ocean that could monitor signals from missile launching, submarine, military deploym...
Bannon: It’s a great question. I certainly think secularism has sapped the strength of the Judeo-Christian West to defend its ideals, right? If you go back to your home countries and your proponent of the defense of the Judeo- Christian West and its tenets, often times, particul...
Underweight Retail In addition to Brexit concerns, we also see a number of fundamental reasons to reiterate out underperform on Retail. Structural margin pressures: Aside from Brexit, retailers face declining returns as online disruptors and discounters drive up competition. EBI...