…-95 8-Dec-80 14-Apr-87 3-Mar-80 14-Mar-00 22-Jul-99 21-Sep-78 19-Apr-99 28-Jan-00 15-Oct-99 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data from 1-Feb-71 to 16-Jun-17. Drawdowns measured from prior peaks and using close-to-close data. Chart 14: On 16-Jun, the SPX had its 11™ c...
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…2835 2885 2.935 700 85-2835 2.885 750 2. 835 800 2.68 785 850 | 2685 2,735 900 2 2635 2,685 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg. 2016 rate is annualized from the first 3 quarters of data. Table 5, above, shows a scenario analysis of China’s FX reserves in 2017...
…ts hedging less, be happy. That will signal better days. Finally. The IMF does offer a bit of more heartening news: The global wipe out finally seems to be receding. "The world economy is stabilizing," the IMF reports. Its global economic growth projection of 2.5 percent in 2010...
…96% 0.36% 0.00% 1.75% 2.49% 1.11% 0.28% 1Mth Change 2.00% 0.38% 4.10% 2.52% 3.76% 497% 6.28% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Table 9: Statistics on implied, realised, skew and term structure for 3-month and 12-month vols (emerging markets) 3-month {2-month EEM US IBOV...
…5 years, the average number of XLF calls that could be purchased was only 0.80. == Average Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data from 9-Jun-12 to 16-Jun-17. Table 2: Current S&P500 volatility and correlation measures relative to the prior two year of historical dail...
…verview. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 16(5), 361- 370. Elsevier Ltd.; Ferguson, R. B. (2006). Tribal, “Ethnic,” and Global. Jn: The Psychology of Resolving Global Conflict: From war to peace, volume I, Nature vs Nurture (Ed. M. Fitzduff, C.E. Stout; Lawrence Erlbaum Ass), 1-1...
…dices.°° We point to three examples to illustrate the mismeasurement argument. First, our colleagues in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research (GIR) have pointed out that the official price indices for information and communication technology show an implausible gap between t...
… can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Federal Reserve. rate hikes should the economy weaken, and will pick up the pace later in 2017 or 2018 if the fiscal package unde...
Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 () Global Financial Crisis 80.9 ® First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) @) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis G) Greek Default 60 + @...
… typical realized Bf "election day" move of 1.5% (see 19 Chart 14) 46 “Sept6 Oct 16 Novi6 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Daily data from 2-Jun-09 to 5-Aug-16. *Day count adjustment = we adjust the VIX futures curve to reflect the Trade-Day/252 day-count convention...
… 1.5y 2y RTY change (RHS) SPX change (RHS) SPX 17-May === SPX 1-Jun RTY 17-May =——_RTY 1-Jun Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Chart 20: 2017 is already the 5" calmest year for the VIX with 76 YTD closes below 12. Despite the short-lived vol spike on 17-May, the VIX ha...
…s data (used in earlier slides). For more details on underlying assumptions, please refer to Morgan Stanley Research’s Global Outlook piece “Sovereign Subjects: Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How,” 8/25/10. KP Source: Arnaud Mares, Morgan Stanley Research. www.kp...
Exhibit 98: Full-Year Average Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Oil consumption in 2017 could exceed supply for the first time since 2013. Million Barrels/Day 100 Average Forecast World Production oS + World Consumption 98 Production Exceeded Consumption wa Between 2014 a...
ACKRELL CAPITAL CHAPTERV_ Global Cannabis Regulation In 2012, the presidents of Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico requested the UN to focus its next special session on drugs on policy reform rather than on a mere progress review and continuation of the same policies. In 2014, the G...
…% 0.1% 53.0% 0.6% TWSE 10.7% 0.3% 8.2% 1.2% 1.5% 14.1% 2.9% 0.4% 12.6% -1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Chart 41: Index correlation is generally further away from their 10-year Except for the ASX200, Asian stock and index vols are more lows while...