Jonathan Levin — Prof and Chair of Dept of Economics, Stanford. 2011 Winner of the John Bates Clark Medal. Ann Lewis - President, NoLimits. Fmr Director of Communications to the U.S. President (1997-2000). Rob LoCasio — CEO, LivePerson (NASDAQ: LSPN). Jeremy Liew — GP, LightSpee...
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It follows that if real GDP is understated, then what appears to be a slow recovery is not as slow as reported and what appears to be a period of low productivity growth is not as low as reported. We believe that the evidence favors the mismeasurement argument. At a September 20...
Exhibit 23: Policy Rate Path Projections We expect the pace of monetary policy tightening to accelerate but remain benign. Federal Funds Rate (%) 405 ISG View GIR View Market Implied Median Federal Reserve Projection 3.5 5 3.0 25 + 2.0 - 0.5 0.0 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 D...
Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 () Global Financial Crisis 80.9 ® First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) @) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis G) Greek Default 60 + @...
Chart 13: The 2016 election move implied by the VIX term structure is, in our estimate’, approx. 1.4%... ---0--- Interpolated Oct future (level where Sep/Oct/Nov Fly = 0) —2e— Expected Oct future based on median level of ~1M/2M/3M fly em=@=—= \//X futures (adjusted for holidays)...
®) ROCKEFELLER & CO. A iN New Cot - A, Banks and insurance companies play a vital role in our financial system, providing savings, fi- nancing, investment, and pay- ment services to consumers and businesses of all sizes. Our mod- ern economy requires a stable, trustworthy, an...
Notable trends and dislocations (US) Major US equity indices soar to all-time highs as the low vol regime persists Friday marked the end of the second full week following the political turmoil on Wed, 17-May. Since then, volatility has once again collapsed (10d realized is at 4...
On a Net Worth Basis, USA Inc. Also Sits in Middle of Pack vs. Western European Peer Governments Illustrative Estimates* of Government Net Worth, 2009 o. 400% ---------------.--.--..-___._..._._. . .- rs} Better Than USA Worse Than USA x) = 0% t T T T T T T T T T 1 G s S a Cos...
Exhibit 98: Full-Year Average Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Oil consumption in 2017 could exceed supply for the first time since 2013. Million Barrels/Day 100 Average Forecast World Production oS + World Consumption 98 Production Exceeded Consumption wa Between 2014 a...
Chart 40: Volatility measures of major Asian indices (data as of 02-Jun-17) 3Mth ATM Implied Volatility 10D Realized Volatility {2Mth-1Mth ATM Vol Spread 3Mth 90-110 Skew Spread Equity Market Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly 4Yr Weekly Current change percentile Current c...
Exhibit 96: OPEC 2016 Production Cut Agreement and Recent Changes If fully implemented, OPEC's proposed cut would reverse production growth from the prior 6 months. Million Barrels/Day 14 m Production Change in 6 Months Leading up to the November 2016 OPEC Meeting 12 m Novembe...
157 Of course, the liaison between the NSA and its allies was a two way street. In 2013, none of these other countries had a global network of geosynchronous sensors in outer space and under the ocean that could monitor signals from missile launching, submarine, military deploym...
Bannon: It’s a great question. I certainly think secularism has sapped the strength of the Judeo-Christian West to defend its ideals, right? If you go back to your home countries and your proponent of the defense of the Judeo- Christian West and its tenets, often times, particul...
Chart 50: Utilities relative PE close to the 2013 low Chart 51: Chemicals / Industrials — re-rated but PE-rel not excessive 1.20 -0.5 1.30 1.15 0.0 425 4 0.5 10 10 1.20 1.05 , 15 4.15 1.00 2.0 1.10 0.95 25 1.05 ai an — Chemicals / Industrials PE-rel _— ——PE-relative UTILITIES 1....
In other words, 2Q17 marks the low point in oil and gas production, with momentum accelerating in 2H17 to kick start a multi-year period of growth. Chart 1: Hess production outlook: inflection point from 2Q17 600 500 400 300 200 100 1Q16A 2016 4Q17E 3Q18E 2Q19F 1Q20E 2020...