been one of Modigliani’s points in his interruptions. Federal deposit insurance subsidizes cheap money and keeps lending rates low. Most tradition associates easy money with growth and prosperity. Higher interest rates are associated with restraint in investment and consumption...
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Overweight US Energy Infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs): We initiated a direct allocation to energy MLPs in late January 2016 and have maintained that tilt. Given our assumptions about oil prices, we believe that the cash distributions from MLPs are generally secur...
Exhibit 25: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index The labor market recovery has led to a steady increase in consumer confidence. Index Points 160 140 20 113.7 91.5 Conference Board Consumer Confidence G4 —« Historical Average Post-Global Financial Crisis Average 0 = 1...
Asian equities (ex-Japan) MSCI Asia ex-Japan (27 June): 469 (last month: 466) UBS View MSCI Asia ex-Japan (6-month target): 515 ¢ The region continued to show high volatility last month, with its P/BV temporarily close to 2008 lows. ¢ Hong Kong and Singapore markets’ domestic fu...
Preferred themes e High quality dividend yields (sourced from existing European ® and UK equities) High quality companies with geographically diversified business models that pay sustainable dividends offer an attractive income stream in a low yield world. Historically, dividend...
Politics — populism in the Eurozone? Few predicted that the UK would vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump would win the US presidential election in 2016, least of all pollsters (and many in markets). As Michael Hartnett argues, the rise of populism can be linked to what he refe...
Cheapest tail-risk Hedges Adarsh Sinha Ralph Axel Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) MLPF&S [email protected] [email protected] Gabriele Foa Tony Morriss MLI (UK) Merrill Lynch (Australia) [email protected] [email protected] Shuichi Ohsaki Merrill Lynch (Japan) shuichi.o...
The combination of these factors suggest Japanese equities have further to run. We also see the position as being complementary to our EM position since whereas a stronger USD is a drag on EM performance, it is beneficial for the NKY position. Chart 31: Japan equities have outpe...
Section 2.D NTAC: Commodities, Listed real estate, Hedge funds and Private equity 36 UBS HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024168
Chart 18: European intra-sector realised correlation is near a 10-year Table 3: Personal & household goods, utilities, real-estate, autos and low, which suggests that we are currently in a stock pickers insurance are the top 5 sectors with the lowest 10-yr percentile of intra- en...
Volatility in Numbers (16-Jun-17) Table 11: Statistics on implied, realised, skew and term structure for 3-month and 12-month vols (developed markets) 3-month {2-month S&P500 ESTX50 FTSE DAX NKY HSI KOSPI S&P500 ESTX50 FTSE DAX NKY HSI KOSPI Implied 9.8% 13.4% 10.0% 12.6% 13.8...
when China’s leadership intervened in the local equity markets and adjusted the trading band around the renminbi, and by 104 basis points in late 2015 and early 2016 when the leadership changed the reference currency from the dollar to a basket of 13 currencies. If US financial c...
From: Thomas Jr., Landon Sent: 11/14/2016 3:32:12 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein [[email protected]] Subject: Fwd: EUROPEAN MULTI ASSET COVERAGE MEETING IMPRESSIONS: Eyes on Real Money outflows; Christmas comes early for most of macro players, hedge funds. Absolute majority bet on HR...
We do not believe this tightening cycle will lead to a US recession in 2017. could derail the last innings of this recovery and bull market. The first three are low-probability risks in our view, the next three risks have a high probability of occurring but their impact is unce...
120 reports, but these do not appear in filings detected by Bloomberg. Similarly, General Motors reports equity of income of $2 billion from its China joint venture, equivalent to 20 percent of adjusted operating income. Boeing in 2016 disclosed that 10.9 percent of its revenues...