…ts hedging less, be happy. That will signal better days. Finally. The IMF does offer a bit of more heartening news: The global wipe out finally seems to be receding. "The world economy is stabilizing," the IMF reports. Its global economic growth projection of 2.5 percent in 2010...
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…96% 0.36% 0.00% 1.75% 2.49% 1.11% 0.28% 1Mth Change 2.00% 0.38% 4.10% 2.52% 3.76% 497% 6.28% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Table 9: Statistics on implied, realised, skew and term structure for 3-month and 12-month vols (emerging markets) 3-month {2-month EEM US IBOV...
…5 years, the average number of XLF calls that could be purchased was only 0.80. == Average Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data from 9-Jun-12 to 16-Jun-17. Table 2: Current S&P500 volatility and correlation measures relative to the prior two year of historical dail...
…verview. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 16(5), 361- 370. Elsevier Ltd.; Ferguson, R. B. (2006). Tribal, “Ethnic,” and Global. Jn: The Psychology of Resolving Global Conflict: From war to peace, volume I, Nature vs Nurture (Ed. M. Fitzduff, C.E. Stout; Lawrence Erlbaum Ass), 1-1...
…dices.°° We point to three examples to illustrate the mismeasurement argument. First, our colleagues in Goldman Sachs’ Global Investment Research (GIR) have pointed out that the official price indices for information and communication technology show an implausible gap between t...
… can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Federal Reserve. rate hikes should the economy weaken, and will pick up the pace later in 2017 or 2018 if the fiscal package unde...
Exhibit 19: US Equity Volatility Spikes in equity volatility have corresponded with major global shocks. VIX Level 30 () Global Financial Crisis 80.9 ® First Greek Bailout (11/20/08) @) Debt Ceiling, S&P Downgrade, 70 -| Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis G) Greek Default 60 + @...
… typical realized Bf "election day" move of 1.5% (see 19 Chart 14) 46 “Sept6 Oct 16 Novi6 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Daily data from 2-Jun-09 to 5-Aug-16. *Day count adjustment = we adjust the VIX futures curve to reflect the Trade-Day/252 day-count convention...
… 1.5y 2y RTY change (RHS) SPX change (RHS) SPX 17-May === SPX 1-Jun RTY 17-May =——_RTY 1-Jun Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Chart 20: 2017 is already the 5" calmest year for the VIX with 76 YTD closes below 12. Despite the short-lived vol spike on 17-May, the VIX ha...
…s data (used in earlier slides). For more details on underlying assumptions, please refer to Morgan Stanley Research’s Global Outlook piece “Sovereign Subjects: Ask Not Whether Governments Will Default, But How,” 8/25/10. KP Source: Arnaud Mares, Morgan Stanley Research. www.kp...
…e start of the US occupation (2001) to the present, and especially from contract start (2011) to end (2016): http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-spoils-of-war- afghanist.../91; (4) and that the award Bud Horton helped secure just as Sue's contract was coming to an end was not only b...
Exhibit 98: Full-Year Average Global Crude Oil Supply and Demand Oil consumption in 2017 could exceed supply for the first time since 2013. Million Barrels/Day 100 Average Forecast World Production oS + World Consumption 98 Production Exceeded Consumption wa Between 2014 a...
…% 0.1% 53.0% 0.6% TWSE 10.7% 0.3% 8.2% 1.2% 1.5% 14.1% 2.9% 0.4% 12.6% -1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Chart 41: Index correlation is generally further away from their 10-year Except for the ASX200, Asian stock and index vols are more lows while...
…t of the 9/11 attacks." The establishment claims that the wars fought by America in Asia since 9/11 have been part of a global "war on terror." But this "war on terror" has been fought in alliance with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan - precisely the principal political and fina...
…f course, the liaison between the NSA and its allies was a two way street. In 2013, none of these other countries had a global network of geosynchronous sensors in outer space and under the ocean that could monitor signals from missile launching, submarine, military deployments,...