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While we consider demographics as an important long-term
document IMAGES-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_012082.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% While we consider demographics as an important long-term factor for investing (as discussed in the Third Quarter 2015 issue of Global Foresight: Investing for the Ages), in the short run, it is eclipsed by economic cycles and political changes. For instan...

Table 10: Summary of closed trades as of 19-Jun-17
document IMAGES-003-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014996.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…7 ATM call g nigp-47 Buy SPX Top50 volatility dispersion 27-Feb-16 Long HSI vs. SPX May-17 90% put switch 06-Feb-17 Buy the Nifty May17 95/105% strangle outright 20-Mar-17 Long HSBC May-17 65/70 call spread 3-Apr-17 Buy NKY Jun17 110% Call 02-Dec-16 Buy TPINSU Jun17 110-125% Call...

Last year witnessed a growing repudiation of
document IMAGES-003-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014571.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

Last year witnessed a growing repudiation of this status quo, evident in the surprise outcome of the UK and Italian referenda, as well as US presidential election. As we begin 2017, these winds of change are gaining force. Central banks are acknowledging the often counterproducti...

regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; DSP
document ncorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service; Merrill Lynch (Taiwan): Merrill Lynch Securities (Taiwan) Ltd. House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; DSP

Equity volatility has been unusually low for much of 2017
document IMAGES-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_012097.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

A “Vixing” Puzzle Equity volatility has been unusually low for much of 2017. The Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index options and has been viewed as a barometer of equity market volatility, has drifted to all-time lows. Over a span of mo...

SPX put contingent on higher rates
email TEXT-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014310.txt Nov 15, 2016 House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…in 2d [Chart 1] • While equities have shown less conviction over what a Trump win means (given strong sector rotation), the bond market has sold off with one of the largest moves in history [Chart 2 & 3] • Stabilizing rates volatility from here is key to markets remaining calm an...

Supply-Side Investment Research
document TEXT-001-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025296.txt May 19, 2016 House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

…S&P 500: 2,047.63 S&P 500 Undervalued: 151.8% GAME ON [Updated 7/6/2016] By Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D. Summary To save you the agony of plodding through this fascinating, information-rich paper, I’ll get straight to the point: Donald Trump will be the next President of the United St...

regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; DSP
document Incorporated (Seoul Branch) regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service; Merrill Lynch (Taiwan): Merrill Lynch Securities (Taiwan) Ltd. House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; DSP

Chart 13: The 2016 election move implied by the VIX term structure is
document IMAGES-008-HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025985.txt House Oversight Committee — Epstein Estate Records (Nov 2025)

Chart 13: The 2016 election move implied by the VIX term structure is, in our estimate’, approx. 1.4%... ---0--- Interpolated Oct future (level where Sep/Oct/Nov Fly = 0) —2e— Expected Oct future based on median level of ~1M/2M/3M fly em=@=—= \//X futures (adjusted for holidays)...