LAFFER ASSOCIATES Supply-Side Investment Research May 19, 2016 10-yr T-Note: 1.86% DJIA: 17,526.62 NASDAQ: 4,739.12 S&P 500: 2,047.63 S&P 500 Undervalued: 151.8% GAME ON [Updated 7/6/2016] By Arthur B. Laffer, Ph.D. Summary To save you the agony of plodding through this fascinat...
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Economic Research: How Increasing Income Inequality Is Dampening U.S. Economic Growth, And Possible Ways To Change The Tide levels were increasing at the rate they were 15 years ago, the level of potential GDP would be 1%, or $185 billion higher in five years. A more educated wo...
From: US GIO [[email protected]] Sent: 3/29/2013 8:48:11 PM To: Undisclosed recipients: Subject: The J.P. Morgan View: Local forces are dominating Attachments: imagel.gif; image2.gif; JPM_The J.P. Morgan View_2013-03-28 1084792.pdf J.P Morgan Global Asset Allocation The J....
Exhibit 96: OPEC 2016 Production Cut Agreement and Recent Changes If fully implemented, OPEC's proposed cut would reverse production growth from the prior 6 months. Million Barrels/Day 14 m Production Change in 6 Months Leading up to the November 2016 OPEC Meeting 12 m Novembe...
We use an equal weighted, three-factor valuation framework (P/E, P/TBV, DCF) to arrive at our PO of $14. We assigned a 1.2x multiple to 2Q17E TBV and a 12x multiple on 2017E EPS, with lower PTBV/PE multiple than peers assigned due to the higher perceived risk of their lending mod...
Europe. The average global growth pace of the past 3 months has fallen to only 1.8%, barely more than half of trend. The expectation remains that Q1 should come in at 2.4% as both Japan and the Euro area exit recession. ° While staying overall long risk markets, both credit and...
Equities overview Global equity markets - Key points e We keep an overall neutral allocation to equities (see summary on slide 3). ° We keep our preference for US equities. Resilient company earnings still soeak for an overweight stance. Continued economic growth should underp...
consumption must exclude any schooling or nurture already counted in that investment. (Schooling counts as consumption.) Mill would have understood the human capital concept, defined by Sir William Petty nearly two centuries before, but economists only recently have begun to take...
... How Might One Think About Turning Around USA Inc.? One might consider... e Options for reducing expenses by focusing on entitlement reform and operating efficiency — Formula changes could help Social Security's underfunding, but look too draconian for Medicare/Medicaid; the...
Focus on Productivity & Employment Growth, Each of Which Accounts for ~50% of Long-Term Real GDP Growth e Investments in Technology / Infrastructure / Education Boost Productivity. — Newer technology improves efficiency of communication and lowers costs of providing goods and s...
for grandparents seems to be helping take care of grandchildren. Doesn't that falsify next generation theory? Note quite. Retirement typically means dependence on savings or subsidy. The parental generation subsidizes both the young and the old. Retirees can be interpreted to...
Consider also the history of corporate leverage. Equities are riskier because bond interest is paid first. If equities grew faster, however, leverage would constantly decline. That is not what we see. This inferred concentration of risk premium in cash flow rate is convenient f...
Summary "With the global economy continuing to muddle through, we believe that US corporate bonds offer the best risk return." 36 UBS Economy The successful formation of a Greek government after the June 17 elections has reduced the risk of an imminent Greek exit from the Eur...
UK equities Preference: neutral FTSE 100 (24 Oct): 5,805 (last publication: 5,768) UBS View FTSE 100 (6-month target): 5,850 ¢ We keep our neutral stance on UK equities. Earnings have continued to disappoint, showing one of the weakest dynamics within our market universe. Commo...
as the sum of growth and cash flow, and specifically negative unrealized output. Then deadweight loss = unrecovered decapitalization = negative output = negative unrealized output = max (0, - output) = max (0, - unrealized output). (6.10) Also positive unrealized output = max...