… Revolt. EPS to turn +ve but politics to remain a valuation overhang in H1. • Defensive vs Cyclical rotation at extreme levels. More balanced approach needed but look for another leg to cyclical trades. • O/w Media as quality cyclical and Oil. Stay cautious on UK domestic (Retail...
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… the Near Abroad, and Other Innovations 47 8. Back to the Future 52 Conclusion: Authoritarianism Comes Calling 57 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report emerged from a presentation on the state of global freedom conducted by the author and David J. Kramer, former president of Freedom House....
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Politics — populism in the Eurozone? Few predicted that the UK would vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump would win the US presidential election in 2016, least of all pollsters (and many in markets). As Michael Hartnett argues, the rise of populism can be linked to what he refe...
… own writing, in particular, seemed daring and adventurous to me; it took big chances and made important arguments in relentlessly funny ways. I felt, down deep, that maybe I had some of that in me, too; that maybe I could be using my skills to better express my beliefs. The Real...
…llowed by the IDR, as they offer high risk-adjusted carry, central banks are interested in keeping their currencies stable, current account deficits are bounded, and the currencies are not expensive relative to long term fundamentals. The main risk of the trade is of higher oil p...
Eurozone political calendar 2017 4 December: Italian constitutional referendum Our base case is a close “No” vote where Renzi stays and no snap election, given current polls and the outstanding electoral reform court case. BTPs and the banks recaps remain a tail risks for the I...
…ion 20 00 Feb-94—Apr-95 Did NOT Trigger Recession Dec-86—-Mar-89 Triggered Recession Four of the five tightening cycles that did not trigger a recession occurred during the three longest recoveries in the Aug-67—Aug-69 Triggered Recession CAGR: 4.9% CAGR: 4.4% Jun-99—Jul-...
Global Cross Asset Strategy – Year Ahead The Trump inflection Investment Strategy 30 November 2016 Corrected Key takeaways • Market response to Trump is logical but moves have been frontloaded. We now see USD & rates only modestly higher next year. • We see higher growth and inf...
…: [Perl-Cousins] Fw: Nobody knows nobody in Chicago Steven Munro Elkman Client Advisor Managing Director Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown A Division of Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. 280 Park Avenue, 3 East New York, NY 10017 johone fax This communication may contain confidential and/or...
Barty argued in The Trump Inflection, Le Pen’s victory has the potential to be even more of an earthquake for the world’s financial markets. Indeed, we have already seen a 1vol move in April 2017 V2X futures since last month. So our central case is French political risk caps mar...
COWEN COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019 The below figure reflects the notable competition seen within vape as more companies continue to enter the space. In addition to CBD only-focused companies, we are starting to see crossover from adult-use / medical focused companie...
…ve you @ plz visit me at Romah road. east Riyadh 3izpat althil Fayez @& eceeccetisalat > 2:45 PM @ 44% > < Tweet Z Lea Shuja Rabbani & . @ShujaRabbani els out This is crazy - ‘bint Trump’ (Trump's daughter) in Arabic is trending no.1 worldwide. They must've confused Melan...
West. And he has already met, among others, the Hungarian Orban, the French Marine Le Pen and the former leader of the British separatists Nigel Farage. The latter reappeared, coincidentally, on Friday in Pennsylvania, USA, to a fundraiser in favor of the Republican congressman L...
the FBI sent a poison-pen letter to the editor calling