Every indexed document

or a surge in inflation that forces the PBoC O 5

i.e. a hard landing of the economy. This could be triggered by a global financial =

but a reserve requirement cut is still possible to manage liquidity. = 5p

although a substantial new stimulus is unlikely in the near term. In terms of monetary policy

political uncertainties should be reduced. Execution of policy easing measures could

but are unlikely to result in a strong growth boost.

real estate investment growth is likely to stabilize a

the spending will span Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 det-11 Apr-12 Oct-12

this may not be sustainable without a genuine

showing that the destocking cycle is well advanced. In

wages are deductible (imported goods taxed as a share

my guess is that it would be fiscal constraints rather

the question of how large it can be while preserving these attributes

but no one knows how long they can be sustained. Even Summers and DeLong concede that “even if it is

so why not keep borrowing more? As for the Fed

and (b) tightening policy now would risk permanent loss of human capital

and impose austerity of no more than 1% of GDP in 2013. Ifso

but I get the sense that they will punt fiscal adjustments into the

and what did Larry Summers and Brad DeLong have to say about this recently?

% of potential GDP effect under current law of 2013 PGDP)