so much so that we believe potential demand drivers are
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the power sector is the largest consumer (37%) of natural gas in the US. At prices
coal generators such as Drax in the UK have enjoyed better margins on higher power output (see
natural gas prices in Europe are linked by convention to oil)
largely as a result of the European recession. With European natural gas prices at 3x US
with coal‐generated power margins remaining attractive relative to
with – in the most extreme example – coal‐fired generator Dynegy
lower fuel costs offset lower power prices and the company emerged a
there are structural changes that have a global impact on the
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s recent politicization of electricity tariffs)
are subject to significant government intervention
reactor manufacturers such as Mitsubishi Heavy) and
create additional forces for structural change. For example
and consequent issues of energy security and
Korea Electric Power has outperformed sharply at times in the past on even small
which is a large employer and which faces the consumer directly
as in Korea and China. The two worlds can coexist in the same country
as in Hong Kong and Thailand; the other is a victim of government
and a rise in the carbon credit price from €5 to €10/tonne would produce 25‐50% earnings
a combination of a +10% increase in coal prices