Washington would find it difficult to keep Israel out—as it did during the 1991 Gulf War. That would complicate the U.S. ability to manage its coalition
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based on the evolution of Turkish politics) in addition to some Persian Gulf states
both willing and not-so-willing. Pre-conflict commitments
short duration strike largely limited to nuclear facilities. It would aim to inflict serious damage
the presumed initiators of war in this case
or in the absence or abeyance of one? Would it happen during a period of increasing tension and military readiness
it may hardly seem worthwhile to probe something so self-evident
uncertainty and war itself. By complexity we mean the number of moving parts in a given situation: actors
the opening act of an extended drama whose scenes would unfold
and those who fear the consequences of a war above all else—but in this case simplicity has the virtue of capturing the essence as observers ponder which set of unpalatable risks they would rather run. What is remarkable
and is now almost a settled feature of the policy landscape. There is general agreement in the United States on two points. First
Obama runs the Bush Sr. risk. He got Bin Laden and has been on the right side of the Arab Spring — what Timothy Garton Ash has called “the most hopeful set of events in the 21st century so far
stops serious investment in education and research
best hope of mankind on Earth.” As for Sarah Palin
Newt Gingrich has decrypted in Obama a “Kenyan
they think foreign policy might matter after all. They’re trying to cast Barack Obama as a president who has sold America short
not least because of his physical ailments. Although bin Laden did not have kidney disease
it would be equally impossible to ignore the Palestinian factor at this moment of Arab ferment
it is also working in the same direction as Obama
the Arab spring and the Obama initiative are two threads of a story whose coming together does not herald an end