US rates are back. The US rate outlook in no
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we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
the probability has increased that there could be some sanction relief
but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB
and inflation indexed bonds generally have outperformed.
after the surprise victories of the Brexit camp and Trump
Holland and Germany next year and the possibility of
the risk of trade friction will likely be much greater
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
the BRL remains one of the most crowded EM
even though it is not clear that the net impact of Trump policy is
long positions remain crowded (Chart 9) and
EM fixed income was the best performing asset class in 2016
we would recommend shorting 10y real rates.
with Fed Funds futures implying that the Fed
we think the next phase of the rates move will be led by the belly of
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
history tells us that a clean sweep is usually a recipe
fiscal easing is becoming the last and only resort for