we expect BOK to sound cautious with the pace of KRW
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Hanjin shipping troubles and Samsung related issues
our favourite contrarian trade is long KRW vs JPY.
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
to capture both the referendum in Italy and the French
with the latest flows pointing to more EUR downside and GBP
but investors could start to expect the unexpected after being blindsided in
and markets could become concerned about it earlier if Renzi loses the
if the UK agrees on the transitional period
our baseline projections expect GBP/USD to hit a
short BRL/MXN as US policies may hurt EM less than feared.
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
the USD/JPY has stopped falling during Tokyo
buy 10y vs OIS: fade the impressive richening of shortmaturity
high correlation between breakeven and BRL
inflation expectations have risen but the rise in real yields has also
then it is quite possible that we will get the
there is a global component to inflation and if the US is driving that
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
although we did not take that route. No out-of-sample tests were performed.