indicating that carry trades were not as a strong investment theme as it was
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post-election currency losses is not as highly correlated
since the carry factor is also correlated with global
which indicates the presence of currency risk premium. Since
as they are highly correlated with USD and carry
smart carry reemerges as an interesting proposition. As
short SGD/INR and long PEN/CLP. For more neutral
capital mobility restrictions and beneficial ownership.
mainly due to obstacles regarding the quota
so that inflows upon inclusion would be roughly USD16bn.
which would translate in an additional 1.1%
or 6.5% of its CGB market cap. This would present a very bullish scenario
followed by Japan and Europe. Inflows to China could be
an optimistic scenario possibly leaves 2H17 on the table.
the assessment usually takes a long time.
which is used as the benchmark for more than $2tn of AUM. The
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
we use our global FX forecasts to obtain our independent variables.
Frankel and Wei (2007) for a detailed explanation.).
when the start of the RMB depreciation trend. We base our currencies against the SDR