coupled with a favorable external position and
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which still offers an attractive risk-adjusted carry
high current account deficit countries like Turkey or South
though with some heterogeneity within the
we choose our best carry trades across EM and DM.
and focusing on those trades where ex-ante high carry is consistent
we think LatAm is the region that will suffer the most in the new global scenario
we could stop the analysis here and choose those
this filter is not enough in the current
we seek for currencies with high riskadjusted
while in Asia the shocks to monetary policy are the
LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in
for the last two years and the years 2013-2014
we study the cross sectional exposure of
we find that EM currencies are the most attractive
exhibit negative skewness and fat tails. Even
which are mostly candidates for funding currencies. However
isolating global and idiosyncratic sources of risks
so that the cushion provided by the carry compensates for the
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016