leaving higher yielding shorter bonds. A commodity price
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annual carry & roll 30bp; target: 6.35%; stop: 5.25%
we expect a sharp selloff with an eventual recovery.
while the higher yield and lower duration of lower quality and shorter EM
a retreat from the US Treasury’s “strong dollar” policy by the new
flows out of these currencies into USD would
the anchoring of 10Y yields will further weigh on the Yen as
(Chart 13). Our fair value framework indicates that
we see three clear reasons why the market still has to
long USDJPY and short basket of LatAm long bonds. Here
US rates are back. The US rate outlook in no
we urge caution with the reflation trade. Short 10y US real
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
the probability has increased that there could be some sanction relief
but we are more concerned by the non-trivial risk that the ECB
and inflation indexed bonds generally have outperformed.
after the surprise victories of the Brexit camp and Trump
Holland and Germany next year and the possibility of
the risk of trade friction will likely be much greater
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016