we think Eurobonds provide the best risk/reward as the rating is a
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monetary policy or moral suasion of the banks.
politics calm down by the referendum which may also reduce the need
and the news flow suggests a referendum by April/May. In a
US rates volatility is harmful for countries like Turkey that have funded
we believe it is worth noting that Turkish
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
perhaps tighter monetary policy and some protectionist’s measures.
based on our Compass valuation model. The model provides
stop 6.75). The trade benefits from valuation
we expect BOK to sound cautious with the pace of KRW
Hanjin shipping troubles and Samsung related issues
our favourite contrarian trade is long KRW vs JPY.
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
to capture both the referendum in Italy and the French
with the latest flows pointing to more EUR downside and GBP
but investors could start to expect the unexpected after being blindsided in
and markets could become concerned about it earlier if Renzi loses the
if the UK agrees on the transitional period
our baseline projections expect GBP/USD to hit a