while in Asia the shocks to monetary policy are the
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LatAm and EMEA currencies are more sensitive to shocks in
for the last two years and the years 2013-2014
we study the cross sectional exposure of
we find that EM currencies are the most attractive
exhibit negative skewness and fat tails. Even
which are mostly candidates for funding currencies. However
isolating global and idiosyncratic sources of risks
so that the cushion provided by the carry compensates for the
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
indicating that carry trades were not as a strong investment theme as it was
post-election currency losses is not as highly correlated
since the carry factor is also correlated with global
which indicates the presence of currency risk premium. Since
as they are highly correlated with USD and carry
smart carry reemerges as an interesting proposition. As
short SGD/INR and long PEN/CLP. For more neutral
capital mobility restrictions and beneficial ownership.
mainly due to obstacles regarding the quota
so that inflows upon inclusion would be roughly USD16bn.