outflows from these countries will adversely impact the
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which we expect to continue depreciating in this new high US rates
Trump’s victory implies that political risks are becoming increasingly important in
and gives the ruble the best risk-adjusted carry
we prefer to use the EUR as a funding currency
we prefer to mitigate the abovementioned
the currency remains overvalued and highly
in particular given the expected improved foreign
FX & EM 2017 Year Ahead | 16 November 2016
we expect Russian foreign policy to become more conciliatory
coupled with a favorable external position and
which still offers an attractive risk-adjusted carry
high current account deficit countries like Turkey or South
though with some heterogeneity within the
we choose our best carry trades across EM and DM.
and focusing on those trades where ex-ante high carry is consistent
we think LatAm is the region that will suffer the most in the new global scenario
we could stop the analysis here and choose those
this filter is not enough in the current
we seek for currencies with high riskadjusted