we expect oil to trade in a $45–65 range
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while a downward-sloping curve (backwardation) is positive.
depending on the shape of the forward curve. An upward-sloping
given that less than 10% of existing debt
enabling the high yield municipal market
a level that has been higher only 29% of the
it ended in a rout. The yield on 10-year
market participants are already wellpositioned
the US economy begins 2017 at an abovetrend
as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
we accord a 15% probability of a recession in
as well as today’s depressed labor force
we show the latest year-over-year CPI inflation rate (November). Japan core inflation excludes fresh food
to shift trade policy. The latter two statutes
the probability of a recession this year
are the lowest returns we have published since
” Peterson Institute for International Economics
” forthcoming Peterson Institute for International Economics
compared with an average of 2.3% in past
which is half the pace of the median and