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the ongoing risks stemming from the sovereign debt crisis lead us to the view that Eurozone

but we see this as still too high against the weak economic backdrop.

we forecast the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the S&P 500 to rise to about 14.0x

which leads us to be neutral on Financials

we keep our preference for IT due to a solid earnings outlook and strong

as valuation looks expensive relative to world

or a surge in inflation that forces the PBoC to significantly tighten monetary policy.

causing a slump in Chinese exports. Other risks include a sharp decline in Chinese

i.e. a hard landing of the economy. This could be triggered by a global

including possibly an acceleration of infrastructure investments

we think the real focus has to be on the

we think the PBoC may implement more reductions in banks' reserve

at this point we don't expect further rate cuts this

the cut confirms the leadership's commitment to support the

the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has recently cut interest rates by 25bps – the first such

we have yet to see meaningful pick-up in activity. We think that policy

thus fiscal policy tightens by USD 600 billion (3.7% of UBS

most likely in the form of agency MBS and Treasury purchases.

political dysfunction and huge fiscal tightening

Democratic sweep and more fiscal tightening