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prevailing dry weather conditions in the US have been

resulting in an economic hard landing. A severe

by pushing credit growth beyond 20% y/y. Additional QE in

base metal prices stabilized broadly in June. But we see room for

IEA Medium Term Oil market report. Another round of

thereby triggering a 0.5% to 1% decline in world

or military interventions affect crude oil supply

which is likely to push up OECD crude oil inventories to 62

which will not bode well for prices in 3Q 2012.

600/mt in order to weigh on scrap supply and compensate for

prices have room to soften in the very short run (4-6 weeks). Copper

and should allow the Brent price to stabilize in the USD 80.5 - 90/bbl range (WTI

the chance of further monetary easing (QE3) by the Fed - which is not our

diversified commodity indices are likely to decline in the

also due to recent policy easing in China

we think selected emerging market (EM) currencies

the main focus lies on Spain and on potential ECB

and should recover on the back of better risk sentiment. We

but the upside remains limited by expansive fed policy

moving towards 6.15 over the coming 12 months.