The Financial Time

Article 5. The Financial Time Global oil supplies are healthier than they scem_ Ian Bremmer June 24, 2011 -- Many of the world’s oil consuming nations, led by the US, shocked oil markets this week as the International Energy Agency agreed to release 60m barrels of oil from strategic reserves over the coming month. The move was intended to offset price pressures brought about by Libya’s supply cut and comes in response to Opec’s recent inability to formally endorse new supply increases. The IEA action is also an example of growing concern over higher oil prices in Washington, where the White House is managing political fallout from high gasoline prices as next year’s presidential elections loom just over the horizon. Yet, a year from now, we’re likely to look back on this moment and find that fears for supply have diminished. There are three reasons. First, the most substantial fallout from the Arab world’s recent upheaval is behind us. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad continues to fight for survival and Yemen continues to flirt with failed-state status, but the Gulf’s major oil-producing states are quite stable. So are other major producers. Even in Iran, with its leaders infighting, the green revolution has moved off the streets for now. While there are plenty of long-term structural challenges for many major economies — just ask China — for the moment there are no more Libyas left to explode. IEA action and the ongoing Saudi supply increases will neutralise what remains of the oil price’s political risk premium. Second, big additional supply is coming, and it’s not all priced in. Offshore Brazil and Canadian oil sands are no longer new stories, but their collective impact has not HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_032186