reality to portray Fatah as colluding with Israel against the Palestinian
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reality to portray Fatah as colluding with Israel against the Palestinian
people during a confrontation.
For its part, Hamas has the support of Islamists in the region,
including Shiite Iranians, but that is an explosive mix to base a
strategy on. Hamas must break its isolation if it is to counter the tired
but real power of Fatah. Symbolic flotillas from Turkey are
comforting, but Hamas needs an end to Egyptian hostility to Hamas
more than anything.
Egypt's Role and Fatah on the Defensive
Egypt is the power that geographically isolates Hamas through its
treaty with Israel and with its still-functional blockade on Gaza. More
than anyone, Hamas needs genuine regime change in Egypt. The new
regime it needs is not a liberal democracy but one in which Islamist
forces supportive of Hamas, namely the Muslim Brotherhood, come
to power.
At the moment, that is not likely. Egypt's military has retained a
remarkable degree of control, its opposition groups are divided
between secular and religious elements, and the religious elements
are further divided among themselves - as well as penetrated by an
Egyptian security apparatus that has made war on them for years. As
it stands, Egypt is not likely to evolve in a direction favorable to
Hamas. Therefore, Hamas needs to redefine the political situation in
Egypt to convert a powerful enemy into a powerful friend.
Though it is not easy for a small movement to redefine a large nation,
in this case, it could perhaps happen. There is a broad sense of
unhappiness in Egypt over Egypt's treaty with Israel, an issue that
comes to the fore when Israel and the Palestinians are fighting. As in
other Arab countries, passions surge in Egypt when the Palestinians
are fighting the Israelis.
Under Mubarak, these passions were readily contained in Egypt. Now
the Egyptian regime unquestionably is vulnerable, and pro-
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031920
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