The National Interest

Article 1. The National Interest Which Road Will Egypt Take? Kathryn Alexeeff May 19, 2014 -- With Abdul Fattah al-Sisi’s official resignation from the military and bid for the presidency, the future of Egypt looks murky at best. While his victory is highly likely, the question remains—down which path will he take Egypt? Al-Sisi’s support for the anti-Morsi protesters may indicate support for the democratization of Egypt and the will of the people. On the other hand, his bid looks like a giant leap backwards for Egypt, a return to a military dictatorship. Egypt has several potential paths forward under an al-Sisi government, none of which are ideal. Unfortunately, Egypt appears to be justifying analysts’ worst fears and will likely return to a Mubarak-style military autocracy under al-Sisi. The first option is a military government that enacts economic and political reforms that improve the lives of the citizenry, not just the military or the elites. This will lead to a slower evolution toward democracy. On the plus side, slower evolution under a stable government would allow structural changes to take root, fostering effective institutions and greater stability. The negative side is that evolution of this sort would be neither smooth nor straightforward. It would come in fits and spurts, punctuated by returns to oppression and violence. It would also be extremely slow, and easy for a demagogue to reverse. Unfortunately, given Egypt’s current situation, option one is highly unlikely. Given the high levels of repression and violence, the only reforms the government will likely enact would involve greater centralized power in its hands. Furthermore, there are a myriad of ways for a government to pay lip service to democratization without actually decreasing its power. Another option is that Egypt becomes stuck in a proverbial time loop—trepeating the revolution every year or two when the government fails to deliver on HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031570