an effort to avoid civil conflict. Disregarding their advice, President Saleh remains convinced that
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an effort to avoid civil conflict. Disregarding their advice, President Saleh remains convinced that he will be able to stem the
uprising and maintain his control of the government.
On Sunday night, President Saleh ordered units of the Republican Guard and Central Security—commanded by his son
and a nephew, respectively—to clear the protestors from Liberty Square in the city of Taizs, where they have been camping
for more than four months. Dozens of civilians were killed and approximately 1000 were wounded. Reports indicate that
President Saleh is preparing to attack protesters in other cities and towns.
The absence of a political solution to the Yemeni uprising has led to an escalation of violence in Sanaa. Fighting between
President Saleh’s forces and those of the leader of the powerful Hashid tribe, Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar—a supporter of the
Youth revolution—broke out on Monday. The Republican Guards fired missiles at Anmar’s residence, killing approximately
fifty people, including prominent personalities who were trying to mediate an end to the fighting. This attack has further
alienated other tribes from President Saleh’s regime.
Friday's G8 declaration expressed growing concern regarding the situation in Yemen and urged President Saleh to
immediately “ensure that the legitimate aspirations of the Yemeni people are addressed.” Reports indicate that King
Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has also called on President Saleh to immediately leave office. Having turned his army against
the Ahmar family, which has close ties to Saudi leaders, President Saleh has no doubt done some damage to Saudi-Yemeni
relations.
US officials are continuing to consult with Arab and European allies in an effort to bring the deteriorating situation to the
attention of the UN Security Council. AUNSC Presidential Statement asking Saleh to accept the GCC-mediated agreement
is being considered. In the absence of compliance, and in the event of an escalation of fighting, sanctions could be imposed
on the President and his family. Last Sunday, John Brennan, Assistant to President Obama, called President Saleh to brief
him on Washington’s plans and to urge him to sign the Gulf agreement.
The sudden withdrawal of government forces from the city of Zinjibar, in the Abyan province, made it possible for al-Qaida
fighters to occupy the city and to take over government offices. Military commanders who defected from the regime have
issued a communiqué accusing the President of facilitating al-Qaida’s takeover of Zinjibar. They see this as an attempt to
scare the West into supporting President Saleh by convincing them that al-Qaida will take over if Saleh leaves. The split
within the military is wide and deep.
The Republican Guard and the Special Forces, the elite forces that are in charge of the President's protection, are not
necessarily immune from division. Each side, however, calculates that its opponents are weak and, therefore, the temptation
to resort to military means to resolve the impasse is very high.
Jordan
Demonstrations took place after Friday prayers in the cities of Amman and Maan—where railroad workers went on strike,
paralyzing rail services. Protesters called for political reforms and increased efforts to combat corruption. A silent protest
was also convened in front of the Jordanian Parliament, calling for constitutional democracy, not just amending of the
constitution.
Libya
President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron have indicated that they are bracing for a long battle in Libya,
not just to remove Col. Qaddafi from power, but to guide the burgeoning democracy movement in other Arab states to a
successful conclusion.
NATO leaders have decided against bombing Libya’s infrastructure, an idea voiced by many officials, including Britain top
military commander, Gen. Sir David Richards. President Obama has urged patience, underscoring that the combination of
bombing, sanctions, and import cutoff will force Qaddafi from power.
Following the Summit meeting in France, G8 leaders declared that “Qaddafi and the Libyan government have failed to fulfill
their responsibilities to protect the Libyan population and have lost all legitimacy. [Qaddafi] has no future in a free, democratic
Libya. He must go.” Russia agreed to this formulation after initial objections.
Morocco
Last Sunday, Moroccan authorities detained several demonstrators who were protesting under the banner of “insistence on
change.” Prominent Moroccan human rights advocates expressed indignation at the treatment of protesters by security
forces, considering it to be an escalation of repressive methods toward peaceful protests and a sign of the regime's lack of
determination to effectuate democratic change. The opposition movement is organizing a nation-wide protest on June 5 in
response to these arrests.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031330
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