ratified and with international law that Western powers developed
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ratified and with international law that Western powers developed
and have imposed on China while it was weak and that it now is set
on revamping the international system.
In other words China is indeed serious about its nine-dashed line
claim to all features, waters and resources of the South China Sea and
it alone will decide the passage regime to be imposed therein.
This is radical and could lead to war.Otherwise, China could claim
most of what it wants by using existing international law and the Law
of the Sea Treaty. It could claim the features and, for legal islands, a
continental shelf and 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone for
each. Of course it would have to negotiate boundaries with the other
claimants.
But that is the present situation anyway and China's legal position is
very weak. The area claimed would be almost the same as that within
the nine-dashed line and the argument would be legitimate —
supported by the convention.
Regarding the navigational issues with the U.S., the U.S. has not
ratified the convention and has little legitimacy in arguing it or its
interpretation thereof. The U.S. would be widely seen as a "bully" if
it tried to force its interpretation on the world.
The puzzle is that China has excellent experts on Law of the Sea who
are aware of this opportunity and yet China seems to be eschewing
this option.
Perhaps U.S. strategy and tactics have pushed a portion of China's
military leadership "over the edge." Maybe they have concluded from
what they perceive as the U.S. "containment" policy and the constant
and active probing by high-tech spy vessels and planes that war is
inevitable. In this scenario China feels it must defend its exposed
underbelly and push its defense "zone" as far south and seaward as
possible.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_029952
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