the Middle East and South Asia is
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the Middle East and South Asia is
increased political resistance -- and
outright opposition -- from the countries
in the region. That resistance is likely to
come from the new regimes emerging
from the Arab uprisings, as well as a
number of Gulf monarchies.
Indeed, the political trends in the region
are unlikely to conform to the rosy
predictions of democratic peace theorists,
whose musings have implicitly informed
the security policies of both Republican
and Democratic administrations for
decades. Old authoritarian regimes seem
to be passing the way of the dodo bird,
but the new regimes taking shape are
heavily influenced by militant Islamic
ideology that will make them less likely
to engage in security or military
cooperation with the United States.
Democracy optimists argue that these
ideological regimes, once entrenched in
power, will have to moderate their zeal in
order to govern. Pragmatism will
ultimately trump ideology. That line of
reasoning, however, is based on the
assumption that the policy decisions of
such regimes can be explained by rational
choice economic theory. In other words,
if they want to attract international capital
and participate in the world economy,
they are going to have to break with their
ideological affinities. But that reasoning
ignores a hard fact of international
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