over time under the assumption that the rate of reproduction within each population
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over time under the assumption that the rate of reproduction within each population
is proportional to the fitness relative to that type’s other strategies. Since replicator
dynamics cannot be solved in closed form, they must analyzed using computer simulations
seeded with randomly chosen strategy frequencies. This method also requires restricting
the analysis to a few strategies. Therefore, we run our replicator analysis only on the
restricted set of strategies represented in figure 2. While this set of strategies is restricted,
it includes the potentially destabilizing mutants discussed above.
To investigate the frequencies in which different equilibria emerge, we randomly seed
the strategy frequencies many times and record the frequency of each strategy after the
population has stabilized. Many mixtures of strategies are behaviorally consistent with
CWOL, for example, if a large enough fraction of player 2s exit when player 1s look then
no player 1s will look, even if this fraction is less than 1. Thus, we classify population
frequencies as being behaviorally equivalent to ALLD, CWL, and CWOL (see appendix
for details). We plot the frequencies of each of these for different values of a in figure 3 (see
appendix for analogous figures for other parameters). As can be seen, CWOL emerges
often when it is a Nash Equilibrium.
Next, we identify the conditions under which people will be most likely to avoid looking
and detect looking amongst others. For this, we interpret the conditions under which
CWOL is the only cooperative equilibrium, because, as we show in the appendix, when one
allows for mutations, the CWOL equilibrium no longer emerges in dynamic simulations
when both CWOL and CWL are equilibria. Recall that CWL is a Nash equilibrium if
and only if -+, > cy. This equilibrium condition has a natural interpretation: in order to
sustain CWL, the long term gains to player 1 from the ongoing relationship must suffice
for player 1 to cooperate even when player 1 knows the temptation is high in the current
period. Contrast this with the condition that determines if CWOL is an equilibrium:
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026527
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