Obama has made no big mistakes in a revolutionary environment, but no victories

Afpak — a mess Obama has made no big mistakes in a revolutionary environment, but no victories either. No big bets other than surge in Afghan — which we lost; and killing Osama which we won. Obama’s approach is to take no risk, increment into a situation and hedge the position. No big bets. Maybe that’s right for these times but look at Truman with Marshall Plan; in *73 ME war Nixon used it to push Soviets out of ME which gave us 30 years of dominance in ME. Bush (I) pushed to integrate Germany and Poland into NATO — huge bet and we won. Big bets come from the top down. Not interagency BS. Before Malta summit, Reagan WH had given him 18 initiatives to raise with Gorbachev. 2 days before summit, Reagan decided to pass them by cabinet. Held cabinet meeting and every time an idea was surfaced, the relevant cabinet member tried to kill it until it had been vetted by his bureaucracy. After three went this way, Reagan ended the meeting. Presidents make big bets, administrations don’t. Here are some ideas: 1. Iran — next president will be forced to make a big bet. 2. Egypt — Importnace is clear. Our response has been pitiful. Small and irrelevant. Obama is letting his team over analize and organizational dynamics are pushing safe and no risk options. Only a president can overcome organizational dynamics. Not all big bets are worth taking. 3. Syria — Pattern has been to hesitate and equivocate. Some of our allies are joking that we will implement a no fly zone ... 10 feet at a time. We should break the Syria - Iran link with the full force of the US. Slow and cautious will be damaging to our interests in Syria and Iran. 4. KSA we should consider guarantying their integrity. 5. Iraq — NAM bring it towards a break up. Bet on Alawi 6. ME peace process — we need a big bet. Incrementalism won’t work. Activities threaten our vital interests. No big bets can succeed if the US has a policy of leading from behind. Strobe Talbott Big bets should be hedged and designed to change when circumstances change on the ground. Obama doctrine is not concise and that’s deliberate and smart in a very dynamic regions. Obama is an anti-doctrine doctrine. Scowcroft We need a central strategy. Currently we are all tactics and no strategy. Pivot to Asia, responses to EU financial crisis etc are all tactics. The Westphalian structure is under attack. Industrialization led to Westphalian state. Globalization is creating 14 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025810