e High quality dividend yields (sourced from existing European
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Preferred themes
e High quality dividend yields (sourced from existing European
and UK equities)
High quality companies with geographically diversified business
models that pay sustainable dividends offer an attractive income
stream in a low yield world. Historically, dividends have made a
substantial contribution to total returns, and we expect this to remain
the case in the current environment.
e Western winners from emerging market growth (sourced from
existing equity holdings)
Emerging economies continue to grow faster than developed
economies. With little need to deleverage and repair balance sheets,
Asian economies are also well positioned to continue to outpace their
Western peers in the years ahead. We have identified companies from
a variety of sectors in Europe, the US and Japan which have significant
exposure to the rapidly growing emerging regions. We believe a
diversified portfolio of these companies will reward investors seeking
to profit from the robust demand growth in emerging economies.
e Natural gas growth gainers (sourced from existing equity
holdings)
Natural gas is a relatively clean source of energy, and we think it will
benefit from continued substitution for other energy sources over the
long term. We have examined the dynamics of the global market and
the various components of the gas value chain, and identified the
areas we see as the most significant beneficiaries currently. These
include producers in Europe and Asia, suppliers of infrastructure,
services and related machinery, and Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs)
in the US, that offer both attractive yields and growth.
e EM corporates: a growing asset class (sourced from global
government bonds - CIO UW)
Given our relatively constructive current view on risk, we regard EM
corporate debt as more attractive than EM sovereign debt due to its
higher overall yield. Over a 6-month horizon, we expect EM corporate
bonds to outperform US Treasuries and deliver total returns of close to
4%.
2 UBS
Government bond alternatives (sourced from government bonds -
clo UW)
Developed world government bonds offer a comparatively small cushion
against future interest rate hikes and many face increasing credit risk. We
expect selected bonds of supranational or national agencies, sub-national
governments, multinational corporates, and covered bonds to outperform
government bonds. We recommend switching out of government bonds
into these alternatives.
US high yield corporate bonds (sourced from government bonds -
clo UW)
Positive economic growth, robust corporate earnings and healthy balance
sheets provide support to US high yield corporate bonds. Current yield
spreads of 540 basis points still price in a more dire economic outcome
than we expect. Historically, US high yield bonds have delivered similar
returns as US equities with lower volatility. We continue to believe that
US high yield corporate bonds represent a more favorable risk/return
potential than equities and expect mid single digit returns over the next 6
months. Senior loans are exposed to similar positive fundamentals, and
offer an attractive, floating rate alternative to US high yield.
The place to be in Hedge Funds
Growth in most developed markets remains muted. In this environment,
less directional hedge fund strategies, such as relative value and event
driven, should offer above average returns.
EM currencies: An underappreciated asset class (sourced from
government bonds - CIO UW)
The currencies of emerging countries, collectively as an asset class and
measured using total returns (i.e. including interest received), have the
potential to contribute positively to the longer-term returns of a well-
diversified portfolio. We believe that this is especially relevant now that
the developed world is settling into an extended period of very low
interest rates.
* = New theme
Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025253
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