COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
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COWEN
COLLABORATIVE INSIGHTS February 25, 2019
While we are keen to gain more insights into the evolving use of CBD in the coming
months from our survey work, this initial snapshot offers a framework for sizing the
ultimate CBD opportunity. With growing consumer awareness, we conservatively
believe that CBD use can grow to 10% of adults in the U.S., or ~25 mm consumers (using
current population) by 2025. If we assume that the average consumer ultimately spends
$640 per year (or less than $2 / day), that would imply a $16 bn market opportunity for
CBD. We would note that using the U.S. Census 18+ population projection in 2025, a
10% incidence rate would equate to just over $590 in annual spend to achieve $16 bn.
Conversely, holding the $640 in spend constant with the U.S. Census forecasted
population would result in over $17 bnin revenues by 2025.
2
That said, we view this estimate as somewhat conservative, as we can envision a
scenario where a consumer that uses a CBD tincture or capsule, may also be inclined to
convert his or her beauty regimen to include CBD (e.g., CBD infused beauty products),
and or use a topical for targeted relief as well. Our $16 bn estimate assumes the
following category contributions:
Figure 3 We Believe CBD Can Be a $16 BN Revenue Opportunity in the U.S. by 2025
NUTRACEUTICALS
$6,400
TOPICALS
$4,000
S16BN
CBD REVENUE
OPPORTUNITY
Se
BEAUTY
$1,120
BEVERAGES
$2,400
Note: $ in mm unless otherwise stated.
Source: Cowen and Company
COWEN.COM 9
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024825
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