Cannabis Investment Report | December 2017

Cannabis Investment Report | December 2017 m U.S. Legalized Cannabis Market Forecast Forecast Methodology The cannabis industry is driven by consumers, similar to other highly regulated industries such as alco- hol, tobacco and pharmaceuticals. Consequently, our methodology for forecasting the U.S. legalized cannabis market is based primarily on the following factors: (i) the number of eligible U.S. consumers, grouped by age; (ii) the penetration rate for each consumer age group; and (iii) the average monthly spending for each consumer age group. We believe that the variable which will most impact the future size of the U.S. legalized cannabis market is the federal legalization process. How and when federal legalization occurs will impact other primary drivers of the market, including the number of eligible consumers, penetration rates and con- sumer spending. We predict six developments relating to federal legalization: (1) the FDA will begin approving individual pharmaceutical-grade drugs derived from cannabis; (2) more states will adopt medical cannabis laws; (3) more states will adopt recreational laws; (4) the FDA will adopt routine approval procedures for drugs with extracts of low-THC/high-CBD cannabis varieties; (5) the FDA will adopt routine approval procedures for drugs with extracts of high-THC cannabis varieties; and (6) cannabis parts and derivatives will be removed from the CSA schedules (either incrementally, start- ing with CBD, or all at once) and will be fully legal for medical and recreational purposes. (We expand on these predicted developments in Chapter IV, U.S. Legal Landscape.) We do not predict that these developments necessarily will occur in the order presented. We do expect some of them to develop in parallel, and none of them depends fundamentally on any other. For example, Congress could cause development (6) at any time by passing legislation that removes cannabis from the CSA schedules and establishes a national framework for recreational and medical cannabis regulation. Developments (1) through (3) largely reflect incremental developments within the existing legal environment. We do not expect developments (4), (5) or (6) to occur during the current presidential term, but we believe that there is a reasonable chance development (4) could begin within the next five years and development (5) could occur within two years thereafter. In total, we believe that it could take up to 10 years or more before the federal legalization process reaches development (6) and cannabis becomes fully legal under federal law. For our analysis, we assume (i) development (4) begins in 2023, (ii) development (5) follows two years thereafter and (iii) development (6) occurs by 2027 and cannabis becomes fully legal in the United States. (The reader is cautioned that cannabis may never be legalized federally in the United States.) Eligible U.S. Consumers We used U.S. Census data to identify the number of people in the United States aged 21 years or older. While some therapeutic applications of cannabis are targeted at people under 21 years of age, we excluded this group of consumers from our estimates. We assumed a nominal annual growth rate for the U.S. population. With more than 97% of the U.S. population currently living in a state or district with at least one law that permits the manufacturing, distribution, dispensing or possession of cannabis or concentrates, we view the potential pool of eligible consumers to be virtually the entire U.S. adult population. 108 © 2017 Ackrell Capital, LLC | Member FINRA/SIPC HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_024744